Each week, BetPrep Sharp and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg talks about expected win totals, division odds, Super Bowl favorites, and other NFL futures bets with host and BetPrep Editor Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight.
It’s the official futures podcast of BetPrep, a free sports betting research site that empowers bettors with the same tools both the sharps and the sportsbooks use.
Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Futures Podcast.
Note: These write-ups are shortened transcriptions from the podcast episode. Be sure to listen to the podcast for full context on these NFL futures!
Indianapolis Colts: Over 8.5 Wins (-200)
Brad’s Take: Last week’s close loss actually made me feel good about the Colts. I have them now at 9.2 wins. So you say, “But that’s not that big a difference from 8.5.” Here’s the thing: 0.7 wins for five games is like two wins of differential in the preseason, which would be a huge edge we all agree. So this difference is very significant.
Minus-200 may scare some people off. But I think this bet should be closer to minus-400.
They’re at 6-6. They’re at the Texans this week and at the Jaguars to end the season. That’s two wins. Raiders at home, they’ll be a favorite. At the Cardinals is a tough game. But they can win that game. And at home against the Patriots. Everyone is saying how good New England is. I don’t think the Colts are worse. So are they going to go 3-2 or 2-3. I say at least 3-2 and I actually think they’re going to go 4-1.
New Orleans Saints: Under 8.5 Wins
Brad’s Take: Saints Under 9.5 wins was my biggest bet of the season. They’re 5-6. They have six games left. I’m going to win the 9.5 bet since they’re not going 5-1. Can they go 4-2 to go Over their current number? This week, they have about a 30% chance to beat the Cowboys. Then they’re at Tampa Bay, also very likely to lose. Carolina at home. At the Jets. Miami at home. At the Falcons. I’m the first to admit that it is an easy schedule … Carolina is so bad at QB but are the Saints a better team? They’re better than the Jets and Falcons but it’s not like those games can’t be lost by the Saints, who are not good themselves. I think this team is really, really bad. They don’t have anything on offense.
Detroit Lions: Under 1.5 Games
Brad’s Take: Who the hell are the Lions beating? Vikings at home, at Denver, Arizona at home, at the Falcons, at Seattle, Packers at home – they are going to be legitimate underdogs in all six of those games.
I would have set this over/under at 0.5, probably juice to the Over. I’m going to dare them to get two wins.
Their best chance of winning a game is against the Packers the final week if the Packers don’t need it. But I think Green Bay will need it. I really like this Lions Under 1.5 wins play quite a bit.
Green Bay Packers: Win NFC (+450)
Brad’s Take: Here’s what it comes down to: they have a good chance of winning out and guaranteeing the top seed. The only game where they are not a heavy favorite is at the Ravens and I don’t think the Ravens are good … Am I arguing with you that Tampa Bay actually is the best team? No, I’m not. But that’s like, do you like chocolate ice cream better or vanilla? Who knows. If they played 100 times, these teams would probably go 50-50 … I’m down on all the other favorites in the NFC, including the Cardinals. We talk all the time about Kyler Murray being healthy and we have not seen if he’s healthy yet. He never stays healthy for long.
QB Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Win MVP (+350)
Brad’s Take: We’ve played 12 weeks. So at this exact moment in the NFL season, we’ve completed about 70% on the year. Brady now is clearly the most likely winner. There’s nothing bad to say about him. Yards, touchdowns, wins, everyone loves him. Aaron Rodgers has a case but COVID and his vaccine stance and that whole controversy with him will cost him votes and it doesn’t take much to lose. I don’t think Rodgers can win a close vote.
The Bucs have a very favorable schedule. They could win out. Brady has dominant stats, averaging 308 yards a game with 30 passing touchdowns that leads the league.
He’s right up there in QBR. He should be maybe plus-200 right now. He’s about 30%, 33% to win it, not the implied 18% here.
DE Myles Garrett – Cleveland Browns: Win DPOY (+250)
Brad’s Take: I think it’s a coincidence that all those past winners have been on 11 or 12-win teams. It’s not like QB. To be MVP you have to be on a winning team because we all know that QBs win games. No one thinks having the best defensive player means you have to be a winning team.
Garrett is the best defensive player and I don’t think it’s close. So I think he wins it.
Get more picks: For more of Brad’s picks, including NBA award futures, listen to the full Givin Futures podcast.