It is the most glorious of national holidays, where we stuff our faces with stuffing, as well as turkey, mashed potatoes, green bean casserole, gravy, and then put on sweatpants to watch a triple-header of NFL football. And now, thanks to the widespread growth of sports betting across the country, we can add a new tradition: NFL props on Thanksgiving.
All odds via BetPrep, updated 10:00 AM Eastern on Nov. 24.
Detroit Lions: D’Andre Swift
The Prop: D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards vs. Chicago Bears
The Odds: Over 61.5 yards (-115)/Under 61.5 yards (-115)
Our early kickoff features a Thanksgiving tradition that goes back to 1934, the Detroit Lions. And while some of the stars are missing, like Justin Fields and Khalil Mack, this game does feature D’Andre Swift, who just became the first running back for Detroit to go for back-to-back 100-yard games since Kevin Jones in 2004.
The last Lion to do it three straight games was Barry Sanders, in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 in 1998.
.@DandreSwift set his career high in rush yards…again
Up next: #CHIvsDET | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/hkWjnsaLU5
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 22, 2021
Swift may not get to 100, to follow up his games of 130 and 136 yards. Although the Bears did allow Elijah Mitchell to run for 137 yards in Week 8. But Swift should get close enough to 100 on Thursday to make this bet a comfortable over.
Take the Lions’ running back over his rushing total with confidence!
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
The Prop: Dak Prescott Passing Yards vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Odds: Over 271.5 yards (-115)/Under 271.5 yards (-115)
Our second game on Thanksgiving is an interesting one. The Cowboys have looked out of sorts in two of their last three games: the Broncos in Week 9 and the Chiefs in Week 11. Now they take on another AFC West opponent, the Raiders.
We know that Amari Cooper will still be out because of his positive COVID test. We also know that it is a longshot for CeeDee Lamb to be through concussion protocol by Thursday. So prepare for Dak Prescott to be limited in the passing game.
The Cowboys will get left tackle Tyron Smith back, and that should help the running game – a weakness for the Raiders defense. As with Joe Mixon and the Bengals last week, Dallas will pound the ball on the ground, keeping Prescott’s passing numbers low. The fact that the Cowboys check-in as 7.5 point favorites signals a potential run-heavy approach as well.
Lean towards the under with Prescott.
Buffalo Bills: Stefon Diggs
The Prop: Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards at New Orleans Saints
The Odds: Over 79.5 yards (-116)/Under 79.5 yards (-114)
The Bills were dominated by the Colts in Week 11, and Stefon Diggs finished with just 23 yards, which was easily a season-low, and just his second game under 50 yards. It was particularly shocking to see because he was coming off a 162-yard in Week 10. However, that seems like more of an outlier than a sign of things to come.
The Saints’ secondary is good but banged up, and opponents are averaging 7.2 yards per pass (25th in the NFL) and 252.2 pass yards per game (22nd in the NFL). They’ve also given up 100-yard receiving games to Marcus Johnson, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay.
Diggs is a great candidate to get back on track, as are the Bills.