In a wild Week 10, the NFL passing leader board looked relatively normal. On top was Patrick Mahomes with 406 yards, followed by Josh Allen at 366. But because this is a season like no other, it was Trevor Siemian in third place with 298 yards.
You can’t predict them all. But let’s try, as we look ahead to the best NFL player props for quarterbacks in Week 11.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 7:00 AM Eastern on November 17, 2021.
Washington Football Team: Taylor Heinicke
The Prop: Total Passing Yards (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The Odds: Over 216.5 yards (-115)/Under 216.5 yards (-115)
Nothing against Taylor Heinicke, and especially now that he has been told that he will be the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season, with Ryan Fitzpatrick ruled out for the rest of 2021. He has been fun to watch, and productive of late. He threw for 256 in Washington’s win over the Bucs, and threw for 270 and 268 in the two losses prior to that.
But Heinicke has also laid some eggs, like 182 against Kansas City and 212 at Buffalo. For our purposes, it’s the Panthers defense that has us liking the under.
Not since Kirk Cousins in Week 6 have the Panthers allowed more than 203 passing yards. They held Matt Ryan to 146, Mac Jones to 139, and Dak Prescott to 188. This defense is good and it plays great against mobile quarterbacks like Heinicke.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields
The Prop: Justin Fields Total Yards (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
The Odds: Over 246.5 yards (-114)/Under 246.5 yards (-116)
If you love quarterbacks that can do it on the ground and through the air, this is the game for you. Lamar Jackson is well-known as a big-time total yards performer, but don’t sleep on Justin Fields, who recently discovered his legs.
I can’t get enough of the sky cam angle on Justin Fields’ TD run. pic.twitter.com/R9qaGEbTJH
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) November 1, 2021
In Week 9 against the Steelers, Fields had 336 total yards, following up 278 against the 49ers. Those are both good defenses that are playing much better than the Ravens have been playing.
Baltimore has allowed 416 passing yards to Joe Burrow, 402 to Carson Wentz, and 343 to Patrick Mahomes. Fields won’t get close to that passing, but when you add his rushing total (57 yard average his last four games), he should easily top 250.
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson
The Prop: Russell Wilson Passing Yards (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
The Odds: Over 249.5 yards (-115)/Under 249.5 yards (-115)
Even before Russell Wilson got hurt, his yardage totals were down. He threw for just 149 yards the week before he injured his finger. Post-injury his first game back netted just 161 yards passing.
Wilson will be better and healthier in NFL Week 11, but the Cardinals have been very good against quarterbacks this season. Only two quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford, have topped 250 against Arizona. Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Aaron Rodgers all finished below 250, and Rodgers had just 184 yards.
The going will be tough for Wilson.
