The Jaguars are sizable favorites against the visiting Joe Burrow-less Bengals. It’s likely to be an ugly beatdown. The negative game script for the Bengals is bad news for their starting running back’s rushing potential and ideal for the receiving potential for one of their pass-catchers. Meanwhile, one of Jacksonville’s pass-catchers has a mouthwatering matchup. Those are the starting points for our Jaguars vs. Bengals player props below.
Jaguars vs. Bengals Player Props: Week 13
Editor’s Note: The following Monday Night Football prop bets are listed at Caesars and DraftKings.
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Best Monday Night Football Props: Week 13
Here’s a trio of Jaguars vs. Bengals player props I like for Monday’s primetime matchup:
Joe Mixon Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Joe Mixon is washed up. He’s Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) 42nd-ranked rusher among 55 running backs who’ve carried the ball at least 50 times this season. He’s averaging a lowly 3.9 yards per carry this season and needs a hefty workload to exceed 49.5 rushing yards.
Mixon is unlikely to be fed the rock much in a pass-heavy offense against a pass-funnel defense, saying nothing of Cincinnati’s likely negative game script. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bengals have had an NFL-high 69% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 11. Conversely, the Jaguars have faced a 61% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 10.
Mixon has gone under 49.5 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, according to The 33rd Team, only Bijan Robinson (105 rushing yards), Christian McCaffrey (95), Isiah Pacheco (70), and Alvin Kamara (62) had over 49.5 rushing yards in a game against the Jaguars this season. Finally, FanDuel Sportsbook’s line of 49.5 yards is two yards higher than at other sportsbooks, adding to the appeal of this wager.
Where to bet: Joe Mixon Under 49.5 Rushing Yards | -115 DraftKings Sportsbook
Tanner Hudson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Cincinnati’s pass-happy tendencies are a plus for Tanner Hudson’s receiving outlook this week. Hudson was on Cincinnati’s practice squad earlier this year but earned his spot on the active roster after flashing his receiving potential when called upon. The Bengals rotate tight ends, but Hudson has an eye-catching target per route run rate.
According to PFF, Hudson has had 15 targets, 14 receptions, and 100 receiving yards on only 47 routes since Week 10. Hudson has averaged 32.2 receiving yards per game, with a median of 31.5 in six games this season.
The matchup is good, too. The Jaguars have allowed 10 tight ends to exceed 20.5 receiving yards this season. However, Kylen Granson had over 20.5 receiving yards in two games against the Jaguars. Thus, there were 11 instances of a tight end besting 20.5 receiving yards against the Jaguars this season.
Where to bet: Tanner Hudson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards | -113 Caesars Sportsbook
Evan Engram Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Evan Engram isn’t the top passing-game weapon in Jacksonville. Still, he’s regularly involved. Even with Calvin Ridley emerging in Jacksonville’s two most recent games, Engram was third on the Jags in routes (62), second in targets (14), second in receptions (nine), and third in receiving yards (78).
Engram is averaging 47.6 receiving yards per game, with a median of 49 this season. The speedy tight end has had over 41.5 receiving yards seven times this season and has a drool-inducing matchup.
Since Week 9, the Bengals have coughed up 7.3 receptions per game and 82.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends. They’ve permitted six tight ends to clear 41.5 receiving yards this season. Moreover, four tight ends have exceeded 41.5 receiving yards against the Bengals in their past five games, and Mark Andrews was on his way in the outlier contest before he suffered a season-ending injury. Engram should make the most of this matchup and surpass 41.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Evan Engram Over 41.5 Receiving Yards | -115 DraftKings Sportsbook
