Week 10 of the NFL season is here and that means another week of fun NFL player props on the board. We’re starting to get a big enough sample size to really get into accurate betting data, which should mean more prop hits as well. Let’s get into my favorite bets and break down why I think they’re locks this week.
All NFL Player Props via BetPrep as of Friday, Nov. 12 at 9:00 am.
Washington Football Team: QB Taylor Heinicke
The Prop: Heinicke Total Passing Yards (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Odds: Over 239.5 (-114) / Under 239.5 (+110)
Taylor Heinicke has had some ups and downs this season, but this is a great matchup for him in the passing game with Tampa Bay being a clear pass funnel defense. The Washington Football Team is also not the best offensive line and they have dealt with injuries to Antonio Gibson all season long.
Heinicke has gone over this mark in six of his last eight games, and no game has been this favorable for the pass. The defense has struggled all season long and the Bucs are not going to struggle to get up points in this game, forcing WFT to pass to stay within striking distance.
And don’t forget what happened the last time Heinicke played against Tampa Bay…
If the #Bucs defense can't even slow down Taylor Heinicke, they're in big trouble against Rodgers/Breespic.twitter.com/mFeAfxwvKt
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 10, 2021
Carolina Panthers: RB Christian McCaffrey
The Prop: McCaffrey Total Receptions (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Odds: Over 4.5 (-127) / Under 4.5 (-103)
Christian McCaffrey returned from injury last week and had four catches. That was in just 29 snaps or about 50% of the team’s offensive snaps. Over time, I expect CMC’s snap count to go up and I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays over 80% of the snaps next week. The change to P.J. Walker is a bit concerning because he is a bit more mobile than Sam Darnold, and mobility at QB often equals less passes to RBs. However, McCaffrey’s route tree is more like a slot receiver than a check-down RB at times, so I think that Walker will still find CMC.
McCaffrey has hit this prop 10 of the last 14 games and he was limited in two of the four games where he didn’t hit the over. I love this number with a struggling team and a returning star.
Las Vegas Raiders: WR Hunter Renfrow
The Prop: Renfrow Total Receptions (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
The Odds: Over 5.5 (-115) /Under 5.5 (-115)
The Raiders are playing the lowly Chiefs defense on Sunday night and the Raiders offense has had plenty of success against them in recent games. Now, the Raiders are without their most talented receiver in Henry Ruggs III, and Renfrow is clearly going to become the safety blanket in the offense even more. Last week, Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards had eight combined targets for one catch and 20 yards. That is horrible.
It is Hunter Renfrow’s world pic.twitter.com/Fr8VMa7XnL
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 7, 2021
Renfrow is the best route runner in the receiver room by a country mile and this is an offense that wants to throw the ball early and often with Derek Carr, who has been impressive this season. Renfrow has gone over this mark in five of the last six games, and now the matchup and situation are better than ever. Sign me up.
