Another week, another Jets quarterback that no one ever heard of putting his name among the leaders in passing yards. This time it was Josh Johnson, throwing 317 yards – the fourth-highest total in Week 9. Outliers like that will always come and go, but let’s focus on some more predictable NFL Player Props for Quarterbacks in Week 10.
Jalen Hurts – Under 217.5 Passing Yards
If you are a Jalen Hurts fan, maybe he’ll win you some bucks on rushing yards over. But when it comes to the passing yards, take the under in this matchup with Denver.
Just once in his last five games has he gone over 200 yards passing, which was 236 yards against the Raiders in Week 7. And twice he hasn’t even gotten to 120.
Hurts is playing pretty well, and you can see him improving. But most of that improvement is connected to his greater willingness to run.
Combine the style of Jalen Hurts with a Broncos defense that just completely dominated the Cowboys, holding their high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards, and it’s easy to see why the under is the best bet to make. Overall, Hurts may have a good game, but take the under when it comes to his passing yards.
Baker Mayfield – Under 243.5 Passing Yards
We saw in Week 9 what the Browns can be in a post-Odell Beckham, Jr. world and what they want to be. And it’s a controlled offense from Baker Mayfield that sets up their excellent running game. They dominated the Bengals in the battle of Ohio, and Mayfield had one of his most efficient days as a pro. But he still only threw for 218 yards.
Against the Patriots this week, that isn’t going to change much. It’s who Mayfield is, as he has posted 218 yards, 225 yards, and 234 yards over his last three weeks. Also, it’s what we’ve come to expect from the Patriots’ defense.
Justin Herbert, who averages 293 yards per game, had just 223 against the Patriots defense. Tom Brady finished his night in New England throwing for 62 yards below his per game average.
Mayfield averages just 239 yards per game this season, and he’s not going to do better than that against the Pats. Take the under as one of the better NFL Player Props for quarterbacks this week.
Jimmy Garopplo – Over 240.5 Passing Yards
The 49ers have lost their right tackle for the season, which will further slow their running game. That means that we’re going to see more Jimmy Garoppolo, and especially against teams like the Rams.
Jimmy G has thrown for 326 against the Cardinals and 322 against the Bears in the last two weeks. Those are good defenses.
Deebo Samuel the YAC king! 👑 #49ers pic.twitter.com/EVf5ngmH6p
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) October 31, 2021
Plus, Garoppolo and Deebo Samuel have created an otherworldly connection this season. Samuel is averaging 110 yards per game and 18.0 yards per catch, and right now, Jimmy G is the huge beneficiary of that. It doesn’t hurt that Samuel currently leads the league in yards after catch as well, giving his QB a nice boost in that department.
Against L.A., they will connect for a couple of monster gains, which will put Garoppolo over 275 yards, easily putting him over on this bet.