The hard-luck Detroit Lions, losers of seven straight games to open the 2021 season — despite holding fourth-quarter leads against three playoff contenders (Ravens, Vikings, and Rams) — have commanded the full attention of the NFL betting community.
But not necessarily in a good way. Allow us to explain.
What Are The Odds?
As the NFL season approaches its midpoint, a number of sportsbooks have begun crafting NFL betting odds on the Lions potentially finishing 0-17.
Earlier this week, DraftKings attached +850 odds to Detroit’s pursuit of another infamous season. (We say “another” because in 2008, the Lions were perfectly imperfect.)
FanDuel and PointsBet USA have slightly lower odds (+800) in advance of Detroit’s eminently winnable home matchup with 2-5 Philadelphia on Sunday.
And BetMGM, which began offering a “Will any team go 0-17” prop at +700 back in September, now has posted odds on which team might first fall to Detroit, the league’s lone winless club.
The teams with the shortest odds to get tripped up by the Lions: the Eagles (+135) on Sunday, the 3-3 Steelers in Week 10 (+550), and the 3-4 Bears on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit (+500).
Quick History Lesson
Each NFL season, there’s always a last unbeaten team standing — and this season, that team was the Cardinals … until Thursday, when the Packers escaped Arizona with a 24-21 victory that promptly took the “Will any team go 17-0” prop off odds boards across the land.
And each season, there’s always a last team in Detroit’s current situation: still awaiting its first victory multiple weeks into the campaign.
Charting the last three years:
2020 season: The Jets had the league’s second-worst record (2-14), but were the last club to claim victory, going winless all the way until Week 15. Interestingly, the Jaguars had the longest losing streak in 2020, as they followed a Week 1 victory over the Colts with 15 consecutive defeats.
2019: The Bengals started 0-11 before upending the Jets in Week 13, 22-6. Ahead of this infamous contest, then-New York head coach Adam Gase apparently missed Thanksgiving dinner with his family in lieu of intense game-planning at the Jets’ headquarters. Ouch.
2018: There were no winless teams past Week 5. NFL parity at its best!
The Best Of The Worst
The 2008 Lions were the first team in NFL history to go winless for a full 16-game season. (The league expanded to 16 games in 1978.)
That squad had one Hall of Fame wideout (Calvin Johnson) and two prominent tailbacks (Kevin Jones and Rudi Johnson). However, these skilled playmakers couldn’t prop up a Lions defense that ranked dead-last in scoring (allowing 32.3 points per game), surrendering 40-plus points on three occasions.
Of equal infamy, the 2008 Lions incurred 10 double-digit defeats and led only twice during the fourth quarter all season (at Minnesota and at Chicago).
Along with the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who went 0-14 in their expansion season), the 1982 Baltimore Colts ( who went 0-8-1 during a strike-shortened campaign and averaged only 12.6 points per game), and the 2017 Cleveland Browns (0-16), the 2008 Lions easily rate among the NFL’s worst teams of the Super Bowl era.
Which begs the question: From a betting perspective, which hapless Lions team would be favored on a neutral field — the 2008 or 2021 squad? We posed that very question to veteran oddsmaker Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sportsbook operations.
“The 2008 team is very similar to this one — really similar,” Avello said. “I would say this is really close. On a neutral field, I’d make the 2021 (Lions) a 2.5-point favorite, -140 on the money line.”
And Then There Was One …
During the preseason, it’s not like sportsbooks rushed to identify the Lions as a potential 0-17 train wreck. Rather, this process has evolved over time.
“It’s all math,” Avello said. “You look at the lines, you look at how a team rates against the next team they’re going to play. When you look at the Lions, they’re really not that bad. They could’ve won a few of these games. The Ravens and Vikings games were close, and even against the Rams, they weren’t that bad.
“So, looking at the schedule, at home against the Eagles on Sunday … might be one of the Lions’ best chances to win. And at home against the Bears [in Week 12] is winnable.”
The 2008 comparison aside, Avello doesn’t believe the Lions’ 0-17 prop bet will have a shelf life into December.
“I think they’re gonna win a game,” he said. “Any time there’s a prop like this, I always believe a team is gonna have a win at some point. The Lions might get it (Sunday). But at the very least, I think they’ll have a win before November is up.”
