The Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 8. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 8.
Daniel Jones OVER 243.5 Passing Yards
There’s uncertainty surrounding who will be healthy in the Giants’ receiving corps, as Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are listed as questionable. However, since both were limited practice participants (Shepard all week and Toney on Friday and Saturday), I expect them to play and want to be proactive, hopping on this line before it possibly ticks up a few yards when they’re listed as active.
Daniel Jones has played six games from start to finish, averaging 271.5 passing yards per game in those contests. Further, he’s passed for more than 243.5 yards in four of those games. Tonight, he has a dreamy matchup with Kansas City’s leaky pass defense.
According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs rank 31st in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, Kansas City’s coughed up 275.7 passing yards per game, per Pro-Football-Reference. They’ve allowed more than 243.5 passing yards in five of seven games.
Finally, the Giants are a slightly pass-happier offense than league average in neutral game scripts and play at a top-10 pace. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Giants are passing at a 59% clip, one percent above the league average under those conditions. Also, according to Football Outsiders, they play at the eighth-fastest situation neutral pace. In addition, as double-digit underdogs, they’ll likely be forced to pass more and play faster if things go according to the betting line. So, I’ll hop on Jones going over 243.5 passing yards.
Darrel Williams UNDER 58.5 Rushing Yards
Darrel Williams has made two starts for an injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire. In his first start, he rushed for 62 yards on 21 carries. In his second start, he ran for only 20 yards on five carries. Of course, he was saddled with a negative game script early in his second start, hence the low carry total. However, the Chiefs tend to continue to air it out even with a big lead.
When leading by eight points or more, Kansas City’s 57% pass rate when leading by eight points or more is the fourth-highest rate and obliterates the league average of 45% under those conditions. So, even if the Chiefs stomp the Giants like the spread suggests they might, it’s not a guarantee Williams will receive the requisite carries to rush for more than 58.5 rushing yards.
Williams is an inefficient runner, evidenced by averaging only 3.5 yards per rush attempt this year and 3.7 yards per rush attempt for his career. Thus, he’ll need to be force-fed the ball to eclipse his yardage total, and that seems unlikely given Kansas City’s passing rate when leading by eight or more points cited above. I love Williams’ under, and Bet Prep supports my infatuation, projecting him for only 54.47 rushing yards.
Mecole Hardman UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards
The pass-heavy nature of Kansas City’s offense is ideal for their pass-catchers. However, it’s a top-heavy passing attack, with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce commanding a combined target share of 49.7%, per Sports Info Solutions. Hardman ranks third behind the studly duo with a 14.4% target share, 4.3 receptions per game, and 41.3 receiving yards per game. According to Pro Football Focus, Hardman is fourth on the team with 237 routes.
However, Hardman isn’t doing much to provide optimism he’ll retain his role as the third option in the passing attack. Out of 80 receivers targeted at least 20 times, his 1.22 yards per route run (Y/RR) ranks 68th. Hardman’s also averaging only 7.2 yards per target (Y/Tgt). Meanwhile, Byron Pringle is coming off of his best game of the year. Further, he boasts 1.98 Y/RR and 10.6 Y/Tgt.
In addition, the Chiefs have reportedly had bigger plans for Josh Gordon that had to be scrapped due to large deficits in recent games. So, Hardman’s grip on the third spot in the pecking order in Kansas City’s passing hierarchy might be tenuous. Finally, even in his current role, he’s fallen short of 37.5 receiving yards in four of seven games. Therefore, he might fail to best his yardage prop even without ceding playing time to others potentially nipping at his heels.