Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!
Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for the main slate of Week 8.
Kyle Pitts OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards
Kyle Pitts’ usage early forbode better days ahead, and those days have come to fruition the last two weeks. In Week 5, before the Atlanta Falcons’ bye, Pitts erupted for a then season-high 119 receiving yards on nine receptions. Coming out of the bye in Week 7 with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup, Pitts set a new season-high with 163 receiving yards. So, any concerns about Pitts’ production taking a dip with Ridley back in the fold were assuaged by last week’s eruption.
According to Pro Football Focus, Pitts’ 207 routes are the most on the Falcons. Further, his routes are inside the top-50 among all players across the league, despite Atlanta having a bye. Additionally, he’s aligned all over the formation, playing 45 snaps inline, 72 wide, and 111 in the slot.
Finally, he’s attached to a pass-happy offense. Excluding Atlanta’s dreadful Week 1 performance, from Week 2 through Week 7, their 64% pass rate is the third-highest rate, per Sharp Football Stats. So, the setup is excellent for Pitts amassing at least 69 receiving yards. Bet Prep agrees, projecting the rookie for 71.33 receiving yards.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 90.5 Receiving Yards
Ja’Marr Chase is an unstoppable force. According to Pro Football Focus, among all players targeted at least 20 times this year, he ranks first with 3.35 yards per route run (Y/RR). Chase is also an air yardage monster, ranking 12th in Intended Air Yards (695), per Sports Info Solutions. The phenomenal rookie is a vertical terror for defenses, sporting the 10th-highest average depth of target (15.4) among players targeted at least 20 times.
Chase’s vertical usage has allowed him to check a couple more eye-catching boxes. First, he ranks first in yards per target (14.8 Y/Tgt) among qualified players, per Pro-Football-Reference. Second, he ranks first with 21.5 yards per reception, a whopping two yards clear of Henry Ruggs III’s 19.5 Y/Tgt in second.
The Bengals are double-digit favorites, so that might scare gamers away from taking the over. However, I’m all over Chase’s over when factoring in the New York Jets’ susceptibility to allowing big plays and the Cincinnati Bengals’ pass-happy nature of late. The Jets have yielded the fourth-highest average explosive pass rate (12%) according to Sharp Football Stats. In addition, when the scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points from Week 4 through Week 7, the Bengals are passing at the second-highest rate (66%).
So, until the Bengals expand this to a wide margin, they should deploy a pass-heavy approach that helps uber-efficient Chase reach his over. Finally, Bet Prep expects him to smash his over, projecting him for 101.27 receiving yards against the Jets.
Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards
Michael Pittman Jr. might face competition for targets with T.Y. Hilton trending toward a return this week. However, I’m not sweating that Hilton is coming back with Pittman performing at an efficient level and is treated to a plus matchup this week. Pittman ranks 21st among receivers targeted at least 20 times with 2.11 Y/RR, and he also ranks tied for 20th among all qualified pass-catchers with 10.2 Y/Tgt.
This week, he squares off with the giving Tennessee Titans. Tennessee’s ceded the 13th-highest average explosive pass rate (10%) to the opposition this year. In addition, the Titans are getting smashed by receivers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tennessee’s coughed up the most receiving yards (1,583) to wideouts this year, allowing a hearty 13.77 yards per reception to the position.
This year, Pittman’s bested 65 receiving yards in four of seven contests. Further, one of the four times he did so was against the Titans in Week 3. I expect him to beat them up again, and Bet Prep projects him for 71.97 receiving yards. So, go ahead and lock in the over.
Deebo Samuel OVER 74.5 Receiving Yards
I feel like a fish hammering the overs. However, Deebo Samuel over 74.5 receiving yards stands out like a sore thumb as another no-doubt selection. Further, Bet Prep agrees, projecting him to fly by his over with 83.59 receiving yards.
Samuel has seamlessly blended efficiency and volume this year, the dream combination for a receiver. The explosive wideout ranks 19th in yards per target (10.3 Y/Tgt) among qualified pass-catchers. He also ranks third among receivers targeted at least 20 times with 3.27 Y/RR. As for the robust volume I teased, he ranks tied for 11th with 6.3 receptions per game and third with a 33.0% target share.
Samuel has exceeded 90 receiving yards in four of six games this year. Further, one of the two games he failed to surpass this week’s yardage prop was when rookie Trey Lance started against the Cardinals in Week 5. Lance was able only to complete three of his nine targets for 58 yards to Samuel. That week’s ugly reception rate was easily his worst mark of the year. For all of Jimmy Garoppolo’s faults, he’s at least a more accurate passer than the toolsy rookie Lance. So, Samuel will benefit from Jimmy G remaining the starter this week.
Jakobi Meyers UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards
At last, I’m selecting an under. Jakobi Meyers and the New England Patriots have played seven games this year, and the third-year receiver has gone under 58 receiving yards five times. The only two times he went over this week’s yardage prop, he required 14 targets and 12 targets to produce 94 receiving yards and 70 receiving yards in Week 3 and Week 4 against the stout run defenses of the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Adding context, everyone largely abandons the run to air it out against the Saints and the Buccaneers.
Conversely, the Los Angeles Chargers are a run-funnel defense. Football Outsiders ranks the Chargers dead last in run defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they rank the Chargers fifth in pass defense DVOA. This is because the Chargers make a concerted effort to stop the pass. In addition, they suffocate explosive pass plays, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive pass rate (seven percent) this year.
So, not only do I expect the Patriots to run early and often, but I also expect the Chargers to avoid allowing damaging big passing plays to Meyers. Thus, he faces an uphill battle of needing volume to reach his yardage over and likely not receiving it. As a result, Bet Prep projects him for only 51.95 receiving yards. So, let’s add this under to the array of overs featured in this space.
