In the main event of UFC 288, we will witness the return of former Bantamweight and Flyweight champion as well as the youngest Olympic gold medalist, Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo. He seeks to regain his belt after vacating it three years ago due to retirement. This fight is currently a pick’em, as both fans and oddsmakers view it as a 50/50 fight. What do we think? Let’s get to our UFC 288 predictions with best bets for this Sterling vs. Cejudo fight as well as Burns vs. Muhammad.
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UFC 288 Predictions: Sterling vs. Cejudo Best Bet
If we overlook the factors of Cejudo’s three-year hiatus, ring rust, age, and other concerns that come with his return, we could argue that he should be the -170 favorite in this position. Stylistically, this fight favors Cejudo.
When we examine the champion, Aljamain Sterling’s strengths, we see that his wrestling and grappling abilities are his biggest assets. He excels at taking his opponents down and controlling them with his body triangle. This was evident in his recent bouts against Petr Yan, T.J. Dillashaw, and Cory Sandhagen. However, this will not be the case in his fight against Cejudo on Saturday night.
Cejudo’s wrestling abilities are far superior in this matchup. He will keep the fight standing, which is where he is more comfortable. Cejudo’s three most underrated strengths are his boxing, mid-fight adjustments, and understanding of distance. He has shown his ability to overcome adversity against Marlon Moraes and put him away after dropping the first round. He has also put guys out early like Dillashaw and Cruz.
Henry Cejudo is a natural winner, having won the Olympics at 18 years old, being a former two-division world champion, and having the best fight IQ in the business. I believe Cejudo’s speed and power are criminally underrated going into this fight, and on Saturday night, we will hear “And New” once again.
Best Bet: Henry Cejudo (-105)
UFC 288 Predictions: Burns vs. Muhammad Best Bet
In the co-main event, we have a five-round No. 1 contender bout with two of the hottest fighters in the welterweight division: Gilbert Burns (-125) and Belal Muhammad (+110).
Burns is fresh off a victory over Jorge Masvidal, while Muhammad hasn’t fought since his TKO victory over Sean Brady. From a stylistic point of view, this fight favors Burns.
Muhammad has been successful in exposing his opponents’ biggest weaknesses. Against Stephen Thompson, he exposed the grappling, similar to Burns. Against Maia, he kept the fight standing and picked him apart, once again similar to Burns. Against Brady, he was able to keep the fight standing and apply pressure. However, in this bout, Muhammad doesn’t have an area where he can attack like he did in previous fights.
Burns has shown his ability to get back to his feet against some of the best wrestlers in the division, such as Khamzat Chimaev. His jiu-jitsu and ground game are levels above Belal, and this fight will undoubtedly play out on the feet.
While Muhammad is known for his pressure, we’ve seen in previous fights against tougher competition such as Leon Edwards and Vincente Luque, he was on the back foot. This mostly had to do with the power disadvantage Muhammad has. Also, the overall discomfort on the feet against the upper class of the Welterweight division is a factor. We saw him outgunned and pressured against Geoff Neal, and we may see it again Saturday night.
I predict that Gilbert Burns will pressure Belal and keep him on his back foot. Burns has the power advantage and is unlike anyone Muhammad has faced in the past. I believe the opening line of (-180) is way more accurate than the current line of (-125). I expect Gilbert Burns to be too much for Belal Muhammad on Saturday night, making him my second-best bet of the night.
Best Bet: Gilbert Burns (-125)