The NFL Draft has been completed, and now it’s time to assess how each rookie will fare in their first professional season. On the heels of the draft, BetMGM Sportsbook wasted no time releasing the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. In the sections below, we’ll run through the top ten odds while making our picks and predictions for who will take home the hardware.
Spoiler alert: I’m not picking anyone listed in the top three on the odds board. Apologies to fans of the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Houston Texans.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
First, let’s take a look at the current odds for the top 10 candidates to win the award. Odds are updated as of May 2, 2023:
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +300 |
| Bryce Young | +500 |
| CJ Stroud | +650 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +700 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +900 |
| Anthony Richardson | +900 |
| Jordan Addison | +1600 |
| Zay Flowers | +2000 |
| Quentin Johnston | +2000 |
| Josh Downs | +2000 |
Odds via BetMGM. New to this sportsbook? Check out our BetMGM Sportsbook Review to find out how to receive up to a $1,000 losing bet rebate when you sign up.
The Favorite: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons, who feature a run-heavy offense. This bodes well for Robinson, as he is an explosive runner with excellent vision and agility. In college, Robinson finished fourth in Texas history with 3,410 rushing yards and was a consensus All-American in 2022. He also has good hands and can contribute in the passing game, making him a versatile weapon for the Falcons’ offense.
It’s not surprising at all to see Robinson at the top of the list of NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, as he has the best combination of assumed volume and upside.
The Other Legitimate Contenders
While Robinson is the favorite, there are several other players who could give him a run for his money. Bryce Young, the quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, has excellent arm talent and can make plays both inside and outside the pocket. He’ll be given the keys to the Carolina franchise with plenty of opportunities to put up numbers in his first year.
CJ Stroud, who was drafted by the Houston Texans, has a strong arm and excellent accuracy. Texans insider Brooks Kubena said on the Rich Eisen Show that he expects Stroud to be Houston’s QB1 for the first week of the season. If that’s true, it would be a boon to Stroud’s Rookie of the Year campaign.
Stroud’s former college teammate, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks as a dynamic playmaker who can score from anywhere on the field. However, he’ll start alongside other legitimate receivers in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. For that reason, it remains to be seen what kind of volume Smith-Njigba can put up in a crowded receivers room.
NFL Rookie Of The Year Prediction
Robinson makes plenty of sense here. If anyone wants to sprinkle some money on him or Young, then I won’t scoff at that wager.
However, I’m moving in a different direction for a larger payout. Yes, this is a risky bet, but I believe Anthony Richardson has outstanding upside.
Some may be concerned that Richardson won’t start for the Colts to begin the season, given that he’s still somewhat raw. However, the only way to improve is to see live reps in a game. The Colts didn’t draft Richardson fourth overall to watch Gardner Minshew lead the Indianapolis offense.
Let’s remember that Shane Steichen is now the head coach of the Colts. He previously served as offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, where he unlocked stardom in QB Jalen Hurts.
Shane Steichen QBs
2020: Justin Herbert set rookie QB records for touchdown passes (31) and passing YPG (289.1). Averaged 22.9 FPG (+5.8 more than he did last year)
2021-2022: Jalen Hurts ranks tied with Patrick Mahomes and behind only Josh Allen in FPG (23.5)
2023: ???
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) May 3, 2023
In other words, Steichen knows how to call plays for a talented, mobile quarterback and give him an opportunity to thrive.
That presents real upside for Richardson as a passer and runner. I really like the +900 odds when considering all of that.
The Pick: Anthony Richardson to win Offensive NFL Rookie of the Year | +900 at BetMGM Sportsbook
