The Tennessee Titans are taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in a fun AFC matchup with impressive offensive players and struggling defenses. This matchup has a very high total, and for a good reason. Usually, this would mean a lower than average NFL props line for someone like Derrick Henry, but not in this matchup.
Derrick Henry has been a man on a mission this year with multiple huge performances, including one last week on Monday night football with the whole world watching. Henry is a bruiser of a back that can also hit a big run when he gets up to his maximum straight-line speed. Henry is a unicorn in that aspect of NFL football, and it does make him tougher to project week to week.
The Matchup
In this matchup, however, I think we have to just roll with what we know and accept the consequences. That’s right; we are going to take the OVER 118.5 rushing yards for Derrick Henry in this game against the Chiefs, specifically for the raw matchup we get here.
The Chiefs linebackers STINK, and there is just nothing that this team can do about someone like Henry for the entire game. Henry is the focal point of the offense every single week, and most teams struggle to contain him in every way, even with good defensive personnel. Henry punishes a soft tackler or a bad angle to the extent that no one else in the NFL seems to with as much consistency. KC has both of these issues.
The Chiefs defense is so bad at pretty much everything that the saving grace for their run defense is that teams are constantly allowing points to the Chiefs offense and worried about passing the ball against a bad secondary.
Positive Trends
However, we can say with significant confidence that the Titans will stick to the run game more than basically any team in football. I expect Henry to average north of 5 yards per carry in this matchup because that is what makes the most sense based on the Chiefs’ defense.
Chubb and Hunt averaged 5.6 YPC. Gibson and McKissic averaged 4.94 YPC. The Ravens (outside of Lamar’s 16 for 107 and 2TDs) averaged 5.91 YPC. Austin Ekeler averaged 5 YPC.
The Bet
Do you see the trend? Henry should be able to grind out 4-5 yards a pop and possesses unique explosiveness that could put this number over in just a few plays on Sunday. At just 5YPC, I’d expect Henry to be somewhere around 135 yards based on his average number of carries this season, and it gives us PLENTY of leeway if the game script hurts Henry’s touches.