The Commanders host the Giants after playing their NFC East foe in their last game and tying. Washington has since had a bye, and the Giants followed up the tie with a 48-22 loss to the Eagles. The two NFC East clubs are heading in opposite directions. Will the Commanders maintain momentum and further Big Blue’s woes? We’ll look at both clubs before providing our Commanders vs. Giants predictions.
Commanders vs. Giants Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | +4 (-110) | +185 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| @ Commanders | -4 (-110) | -225 | U 40.5 (-110) |
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Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: FedExField – Landover, MD
- TV: NBC
Commanders vs. Giants Trends
- The Commanders opened as 4.5-point favorites on Sunday (12/11), climbed to a 5.0-point favorite on Friday, and slid to a 4.5-point and then a 4.0-point favorite on Saturday.
- Washington is 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games.
- The Commanders are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- Washington is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games versus an NFC opponent.
- The Commanders are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games after amassing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- New York is 20-7 in their last 27 games on grass.
Washington’s Defense is Stout
The plucky Commanders are 5-1-1 in Taylor Heinicke’s starts and won Carson Wentz’s final start in Week 6. So they’re on a roll. However, the defense is their calling card. Washington hasn’t allowed more than 21 points since Week 4. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve also held seven consecutive opponents under 335 total yards of offense, and only the Vikings have passed for more than 200 yards in that stretch.
Washington has also done an outstanding job of forcing turnovers. They’ve forced at least one in their last eight games, totaling 14 forced turnovers in those contests. The Commanders are 12th in yards allowed per play (5.3), tied for 11th in sacks (34), and 10th in scoring defense (19.7 points per game).
The advanced metrics are even more glowing lately. Per Football Outsiders, Washington is seventh in total defense Defense Adjusted-Value Over Average (DVOA), seventh in rush defense DVOA, and ninth in pass defense DVOA since Week 8. The offense hasn’t been as good. Nevertheless, they are 14th in rush offense DVOA since Week 8. Therefore, the formula for success is apparent. Washington is built to lean on their running game and defense to earn victories.
The Giants are Below-Average Across the Board
The Giants can’t hang their hat on anything. They’re 23rd in yards per play (5.1) and 20th in scoring offense (20.5 points per game). In addition, the G-Men are 18th in total offense DVOA since Week 8. Since their bye in Week 9, they’ve scored 24, 18, 20, 20, and 22 points.
The defense is even worse. Big Blue is 28th in yards allowed per play (5.8) and 20th in scoring defense (23.1 points per game). Things haven’t been improving, either. Instead, New York is 29th in total defense DVOA, 31st in rush defense DVOA, and 22nd in pass defense DVOA since Week 8.
Further, they’ve coughed up 16, 31, 28, 20, and 48 points since their bye. Their three-highest point totals allowed this year have come since their bye. Additionally, the Giants have been hammered on the ground. New York’s last four opponents have rumbled for 160, 169, 165, and 253 rushing yards. The Giants have coughed up more than 140 rushing yards an eye-popping nine times this season.
Commanders vs. Giants Predictions
Don’t let the identical records for the Commanders and Giants fool you. Washington is the superior club. Yes, they have a negative-three-point point differential, but the Giants have a -33-point differential. Washington also has at least one above-average unit since their defense is stellar.
The Commanders were also the better team in their first meeting. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Washington had 411 total yards and possessed the ball for 41 minutes and 11 seconds, and the Giants had 316 and had the ball for 28 minutes and 49 seconds. Each team had one turnover, but the Commanders shot themselves in the foot more often, tallying seven penalties for 55 yards compared to four for 34 for the G-Men. Maybe, the sloppiness was the product of playing in New Jersey. In their home digs, perhaps, Washington will have fewer self-inflicted wounds. Regardless, these two NFC East rivals are headed in opposite directions, and I expect the Commanders to come out of their bye and lay the wood to the Giants.
Pick: Commanders -4.0 | -110 at PointsBet
