One pass-catcher on the 49ers has a superb matchup, making his over an attractive bet. Meanwhile, even though the Seahawks are underdogs and will probably have to air it out, a pair of unders for their pass-catching options are enticing. Let’s break down the top three Seahawks vs. 49ers player props for Thursday Night Football Week 15.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Player Props: TNF Week 15
For a full list of Seahawks vs. 49ers player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
George Kittle Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
It likely won’t be clear until Thursday who will start at quarterback for the 49ers.
Brock Purdy has played well since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. Yet, if Josh Johnson starts, that is fine for George Kittle’s outlook.
First, according to numberFire, the 49ers have attempted 46 passes and 37 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last two games. So, Kyle Shanahan has trusted Purdy to air it out. Second, Johnson was rock-solid in his only start for the Baltimore Ravens last year. He passed for 304 yards and had tunnel vision for Mark Andrews, targeting Baltimore’s stud tight end 10 times, completing 8 passes to him for 125 yards.
"Probably" Thursday before 49ers will know if Brock Purdy can play. https://t.co/Vwgnrt0Pyd
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 13, 2022
Kittle has had a forgettable season by his standards. However, he should be bumped up the pass-catching hierarchy since Deebo Samuel is out. In addition, the narrative about Kittle being a glorified tackle and staying in to block has been overblown. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kittle has run the second-most routes (63) on the 49ers in their last two games.
The veteran stud tight end also has a mouthwatering matchup. According to Football Outsiders, tight ends have averaged the fourth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) against the Seahawks. Additionally, per Pro-Football-Reference, tight ends have averaged a gaudy 13.6 yards per reception against Seattle. So, Kittle doesn’t need a ton of targets to hit his over for 41.5 receiving yards. Thus, I love this prop.
Where to bet: George Kittle Over 41.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Noah Fant Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Noah Fant is in a timeshare at tight end for the Seahawks. Since Week 8, he’s run 130 routes, Will Dissly has run 111, and Colby Parkinson has run 56. Fant’s usage has also been lackluster during that stretch. In his last six games, he’s had a 9.9% Target Share, been targeted on 16.2% of his routes, had 17 receptions, 225 receiving yards, and only 133 Air Yards.
The 25-year-old tight end has averaged 29.4 receiving yards per game this year. However, Fant has had more than 28.5 yards only six times in 13 contests, has a median outcome of 27 receiving yards, and had only 11 receiving yards on two targets and two receptions against the 49ers in Week 2. Finally, the 49ers are tough for tight ends. They’ve held them to the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (35.8) this season. So, I’m delighted to take Fant’s under for 28.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Noah Fant Under 28.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Tyler Lockett Under 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Tyler Lockett has gelled with Geno Smith. He also torched the 49ers for 107 receiving yards in Week 2. Yet, his under is appealing.
Lockett has been the clear-cut No. 2 wideout lately. D.K. Metcalf has led the Seahawks in targets (58), Target Share (27.2%), targets per route run (26.2%), receptions (41), receiving yards (451), and Air Yards (643), easily clearing Lockett’s marks of 46 targets, 21.6% Target Share, 20.7% targets per route run, 30 receptions, 428 receiving yards, and 434 Air Yards.
The matchup is also more challenging for Lockett than for Metcalf. No. 1 wide receivers have averaged the seventh-most receiving yards per game (76.1) against the 49ers. However, No. 2 wideouts have averaged only 48.3 receiving yards per game, a pinch below the league average (49.7). And, of course, the 49ers have an elite pass defense.
First, per Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers have allowed the 12th-fewest passing yards per game (211.8). Second, according to Football Outsiders, San Francisco is first in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8. As a result, Seattle’s passing attack will have difficulty finding success on Thursday night, enhancing Lockett’s odds of falling short of 63.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Tyler Lockett Under 63.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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