These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
Overall, the model went 1-2 last week. The cumulative record is now 76-44-1 on the season. That’s a 63% hit rate across the first 13 weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 14
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. There are twelve picks this week, including notable spreads and totals worth paying attention to.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Jets +9.5 | vs. Bills | 91% |
| Bills-Jets | Under 44 | 88% |
| Browns +6 | at Bengals | 76% |
| Browns-Bengals | Under 47 | 94% |
| Ravens +2.5 | at Steelers | 69% |
| Ravens-Steelers | Over 37 | 69% |
| Giants +7 | vs. Eagles | 88% |
| Broncos +9.5 | vs. Chiefs | 91% |
| Vikings-Lions | Under 53 | 100% |
| Vikings +2.5 | at Lions | 70% |
| Chargers +3 | vs. Dolphins | 70% |
| Chargers-Dolphins | Under 52 | 100% |
Insights For Week 14
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 13. There are three picks with 100% in the similar matchup column for Week 14:
- Vikings-Lions Under 53
- Chargers +3 vs. Dolphins
- Dolphins-Chargers Under 52
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 1-3 in Week 14. That threshold is now 38-30-1 (57%) on the season. On top of the aforementioned 100% pick, these bets made the cut for Week 14:
- Jets +9.5 at Bills
- Jets-Bills Under 44
- Browns-Bengals Under 47
- Giants +7 vs. Eagles
- Broncos +9.5 vs. Chiefs
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 76-44-1
Spread: 44-20-1
Totals: 32-24
NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles
You can browse previous editions of this article below: