Last week I mentioned one of my favorite NFL player props for Sunday: Devin Singletary’s over. Well, he easily hit it, and we’re back to the well again for another solid value in Week 5.
Here are three reasons why Devin Singletary will go over his rushing yards prop this weekend.
Weak Opponent
Don’t get me wrong, the Chiefs as a team are by no means a weak opponent, but they have been atrocious stopping the run this season.
Reputable sites like Pro Football Focus and DVOA both have Kansas City ranked dead-last as a run defense.
The Chiefs are allowing 146.0 yards rushing per game, 30th in the NFL, and 5.4 yards per rush, worst in the league.
It doesn’t get better than this for running backs, and the Bills have quietly been one of the most efficient rushing teams this season.
This is a huge disparity when it comes to the quality of both units, and Singletary stands to benefit from this gap.
2021 Performance
Singletary shares a backfield with Zack Moss, but he is the first option in this offense, getting more carries and playing more snaps.
He has also rushed for over 70 yards in three games this season, showing to have the production to back up the soft matchup.
Singletary is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, meaning that to hit this over, he needs just ten carries. The Bills runner hasn’t seen fewer than 11 carries in a game yet this season.
BetPrep Positive Trends
When planning my own NFL player props, I try to aim for quality over quantity. Often one advantage comes up, like a weak defense or strong recent performances, but I’m looking for picks that check off three or four pivotal boxes.
One of those boxes is seeing positive trends from the BetPrep team, and that’s what puts this pick over the edge.
Singletary’s player page has plenty of green that supports his over on Sunday:
- Ran for 46+ yards in 7 of his last 9 (77.78%) games when he ran for at least 70 yards last game
- Ran for 46+ yards in 10 of his last 14 (71.43%) games when he averaged at least 4.5 rush yards per attempt last game
- Ran for 46+ yards in 7 of his last 8 (87.5%) games when he is averaging at least 60 rush yards per game on the season
- Ran for 46+ yards in 11 of his last 12 (91.67%) games when he is averaging at least 4.4 rush yards per attempt on the season
Bet this running back from the Bills to have a big game against a very vulnerable Kansas City defense. This should be an exciting game, and we’ll have to wait for Sunday night to enjoy this rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship Game.
Good luck this weekend!