Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 7 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 7. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Week 7
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee Over 67
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 67 total points | -107 at PointsBet
This game is all about pace. Western Kentucky ranks 24th in the NCAA in seconds per play (23.3) this season. Middle Tennessee State is playing slightly faster, ranking 10th in the country in the same category (21.3).
Both of these offenses are going to look to throw the ball. They rely on that, and there isn’t anything to suggest they’ll change their game plan this week. Western Kentucky is also roughly a touchdown favorite, which could force Middle Tennessee State to throw more, even if they’re looking to add a bit more running to their game plan.
The Hilltoppers have quietly performed well against the pass. They’re giving up only 6.3 yards per attempt this season. With that being said, it doesn’t tell the entire story. Their numbers are slightly skewed because of a matchup against FIU. We’ve seen better passing offenses find success against them.
Overall, I’m not overly concerned with Western Kentucky’s defense, specifically with the pace of this game.
On the other side, Middle Tennessee State is allowing 8.7 yards per attempt. They’ve struggled against the pass, which is likely to be the case again this weekend. The Blue Raiders have also struggled quite a bit against the pass at home.
Both of these teams will be pushing the pace and have their foot on the gas with the spread set around 7. I considered taking Western Kentucky -7.5, but I’m opting for the total because of the extra half point.
North Texas -6.5 (vs. Louisiana Tech)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: North Texas -6.5 | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
We’re basically in the opposite situation as Illinois vs. Iowa for this game. Fresno State and Boise State will both be looking to throw the ball in this game. Each team has the ability to run the ball, and they will in this contest, but they’re likely to focus more on their passing attacks.
Both were expected to have high-powered offenses entering the season. That hasn’t truly been the case, though. The Broncos rank 78th in the NCAA in points per play (0.366), while the Bulldogs rank 93rd (0.326).
Both offenses have flashed at times this season, but they’ve also struggled in more difficult matchups. We’ve seen Oregon State and UTEP hold Boise State to a total of 27 points. Fresno State’s also been struggling, posting only 31 points over their last two games.
Both defenses have seen similarly mixed results at this point. Oregon State is an offense that has dominated both defenses. It’s a bit of an odd development, as both of these teams were expected to feature solid defenses in 2022.
Even though they haven’t found much success at this point, I’m leaning more toward the defenses than the offenses in this game. I expect them to fix it slightly easier, specifically with both teams’ play styles.
Boise State’s found success against the run this season, and they should be able to shut down Fresno’s attempts. This will turn them into a more one-dimensional offense, even if it’s what they’re looking to do in this game.
On the other side, Fresno State could find a bit more success against an offense that hasn’t shown all that much promise this season.
It’s been a surprising season for both teams, but we could see a lower-scoring game than many expect this weekend.
Kansas +9 (at Oklahoma)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Kansas +9 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
With how close Kansas played TCU and how bad Oklahoma was against Texas, you can’t believe that even at home, the Sooners are favored by nine points.
Without quarterback Jalon Daniels, it does put the Jayhawks at a disadvantage, but Jason Bean played phenomenally in the second half last week and was the starter for a period of time last season under Lance Leipold. They also still possess the 16th-best rushing attack against the 122nd rushing defense.
In fact, Oklahoma has been getting burned by some explosive offenses — TCU has the second-most plays of 30+ yards this season, Texas has the fifth, and now they’ll see Kansas, who is third.
Getting Dillon Gabriel back is a big boost offensively for the Sooners, and he gets a favorable matchup against Kansas’ 72nd-scoring defense, but I don’t think it’s enough.
Also, look at some intangibles. Oklahoma just suffered one of the worst losses in program history to their biggest rival. Kansas is coming off a close loss, but they’ve continued to play well and are getting the country’s attention. The home-field advantage is a huge factor in college football and could push Oklahoma to win, but Kansas still covers.
Minnesota vs. Illinois Under 39.5
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Under 39.5 | -105 at BetFred Sportsbook
Minnesota has a nice group of running backs, with Bryce Williams, Trey Potts, with Mohamed Ibrahim leading the pack. He’s currently going for 6.4 yards per carry, and his eight rushing touchdowns are tied for the fifth-most in the nation.
This excellent backfield is going up against one of the toughest defenses in the country. Illinois is coming in, allowing the fewest points in the FBS (8.0) and the third-best run defense (67.2). The Gophers faced Purdue’s 17th- rushing defense and put up just 47 yards, but this was without Ibrahim, and with two weeks off, he should be available.
Nobody has been better on the ground than Chase Brown. He’s coming into this game with an FBS- best 879 rushing yards with `140 or more in four games. He’s seen two good defensive lines in Iowa and Wisconsin, both in the top 35, and ran for a total of 275 rushing yards. Minnesota’s sixth-best rushing will be his toughest challenge.
These are two of the top 25 heaviest-run teams in the country. Neither team will push the ball with their quarterback, and Illinois just put up a whopping nine points last week…in a win. I have no problem laying an Under 40 in this game.
Michigan -7 (vs. Penn State)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Michigan -7 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
One of the biggest matchups of Week 7 pits the Penn State Nittany Lions against the Michigan Wolverines. Both of these teams are currently unbeaten in a loaded Big 10 East. Ohio State is also unbeaten, so this is basically an elimination game. Whoever loses this contest can’t afford another loss vs. Ohio State, who is clearly the most talented team in the conference.
While both teams enter this matchup with top-10 rankings, Michigan has a clear edge in my eyes. Their defense has been an absolute juggernaut this season, allowing just 11.3 points per game against FBS opponents. They’ve limited five of six opponents to 14 points or less, with the lone exception coming against Maryland. They ultimately led that game by two touchdowns until a garbage time scored with 45 seconds left, so the Wolverines have been pretty dominant.
Penn State’s defense is also strong, but they managed just 17 points last week vs. Northwestern. They finished with just 360 yards with five touchdowns in that outing, despite Northwestern being a pretty average opponent.
The public likes the idea of grabbing the Nittany Lions and the points, but the sharps are siding with the Maize and Blue. I’m with the sharps.
Utah -3 (vs. USC)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Utah -3 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The sharps are also taking a side in this Pac-12 showdown. USC enters with a perfect 5-0 record, making them slight road favorites against the Utes. Utah is just 4-2 this season, but both of their losses are very defendable. They lost by three points on the road against Florida to open the year, and they suffered a 10-point road defeat vs. an unbeaten UCLA squad last week.
The big difference is that this week’s contest will be played in Salt Lake City. Utah has been outstanding at home this season, outscoring their opponents 150-30 across three games. They own a perfect 3-0 ATS record in that split and are 11-0 straight up in their past 11 home games.
USC will likely be their toughest matchup of the season, but the Trojans haven’t really been tested yet. They barely survived against Oregon State, eking out a three-point road victory, and only one of their opponents has been a Power Five school with a winning record. Utah is far more battle-tested, so they should be ready for this matchup.
The public unsurprisingly likes the Trojans getting the points, but the sharps are siding with the home favorites. I think that’s the right call.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 5-3
- John Supowitz: 4-4
- Matt LaMarca: 3-5
More NCAAF Picks: Week 7
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)