The Chiefs and Raiders close Week 5 in an AFC West battle on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are sizable home favorites. However, the Raiders are coming off their first win of the year.
Can the Raiders spring an upset against a team that thoroughly drubbed them last year? Heck, can they keep it close? We’ll look at both teams and let you know what we think while offering our Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions and best bets.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | +7 (-110) | +265 | O 51.5 (-110) |
| @ Chiefs | -7 (-110) | -320 | U 51.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11 pm ET on Oct. 8.
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Oct. 10
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Chiefs vs. Raiders Trends
The Chiefs were 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook on Sunday (10/2) night, moved to 7-point favorites by Monday morning, climbed to 7.5-point favorites that afternoon, and dropped back to 7-point favorites Monday night, where they’ve maintained since.
Here are some other Chiefs vs. Raiders trends and numbers to consider:
- The Chiefs are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine Monday games.
- Kansas City is 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games on grass.
- The Chiefs are 6-2 against the spread in their previous eight games at home.
- Kansas City is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games following an against-the-spread win.
- The Raiders are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games on grass.
- Las Vegas is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.
Smash Spot For Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City’s offense runs through Patrick Mahomes. In neutral game scripts, Mahomes has attempted 86 passes, and the Chiefs have attempted just 46 runs with players other than Mahomes. Fortunately, their passing tendencies mesh perfectly with Las Vegas’s ineptitude in defending the pass.
First, the Raiders have had their doors blown off by quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. Specifically, they’ve allowed an eye-popping 83.6% completion rate on 67 passes in neutral game scripts for 641 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Second, according to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are 22nd in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Conversely, Kansas City’s seventh in passing offense DVOA. So, this is a match made in heaven for Mahomes.
And, of course, Mahomes has been outstanding thus far this season. He’s averaging 276.5 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Finally, Mahomes had his way with the Raiders last season, completing 55 passes on 74 attempts for 664 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Can The Raiders’ Offense Keep Up?
The defense is highly unlikely to slow Mahomes’s roll. Therefore, there’s a ton of pressure on Derek Carr and Las Vegas’s offense. Sadly, the Raiders are 20th in total offense DVOA. They’ve also scored under 24 points three times this year.
Although, the Raiders scored a season-high 32 points last week in their first win. So, maybe things are starting to click in their first season being led by Josh McDaniels. Still, they’ve yet to eclipse 400 yards of offense this season, and the matchup with the Chiefs isn’t a cakewalk.
Kansas City is 14th in total defense DVOA. However, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they are tied for 20th in scoring defense, allowing 24.0 points per game. So, maybe there is hope for the Raiders to turn this into a competitive shootout.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Predictions
Derek Carr has started six games against the Chiefs with Steve Spagnuolo as Kansas City’s defensive coordinator. Carr has won only one of those games, losing by more than seven points four times, including twice last year. He’s also thrown eight interceptions and taken 12 sacks in those contests.
Perhaps, the addition of Davante Adams will help Carr close the gap. However, the first year of McDaniels as Las Vegas’s head coach has resumed where his forgettable tenure with the Broncos left off. McDaniels was 8-8 in his first year with the Broncos before getting fired after a 3-9 start to his second campaign. After opening this year 1-3, McDaniels is a pathetic 4-12 in his last 16 games.
Andy Reid can coach circles around him, and Mahomes can carve up Las Vegas’s below-average defense. Finally, Mahomes has owned the Raiders at home. Yes, he lost to them in Kansas City in 2020. However, he’s won his other three starts in Kansas City against the Raiders. Moreover, the scoring margin in Mahomes’s three home wins against the visiting Raiders is 123 to 21. As a result, I’m all over the Chiefs covering the seven-point spread on Monday night.
Pick: Chiefs -7 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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