This article is designed to help you make more informed NFL betting decisions, especially when it comes to player props.
To give you an added edge, we will utilize projections and analysis from Betprep – a free tool designed and used by sports betting sharps.
Of course, we’ll combine these projections with a dose of human analysis to provide context. At the very least, this will serve as a nice screening tool for us to start analyzing player props.
Using some of these Betprep functions, we’ll take a look at the best NFL player props for the Raiders-Chargers Monday Night Football matchup of Week 4.
BetPrep Player Prop Projections
| Player | Line | Lean | BetPrep Projection |
| Justin Herbert | 301.5 Pass Yd | OVER | 272.59 Pass Yd |
| Derek Carr | 1.5 Pass TD | OVER | 1.7 Pass TD |
| Bryan Edwards | 3.5 Receptions | UNDER | 3.08 Receptions |
| Austin Ekeler | 59.5 Rush Yd | UNDER | 57.86 Rec Yd |
| Austin Ekeler | 0.5 Rush TD | UNDER | 0.48 Rush TD |
Lines and projections via Betprep as of 11:00 am ET on Oct. 4.
QB Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Over/Under 301.5 Passing Yards
BetPrep Projection: 272.59
BetPrep Lean: OVER
— Herbert topped 301 passing yards in three of his last four games.
— Herbert has gone over this passing total in 10 of 18 games (55.56%) as a starter.
— The Chargers’ QB has passed for more than 301 yards in six of nine home games in his career so far.
Bottom Line: OVER 301.5 Pass Yards. Even though the BetPrep projection sides with the under, this one feels OVER 301.5 passing yards or nothing.
QB Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders
Line: Over/Under 1.5 Passing TD
BetPrep Projection: 1.7
BetPrep Lean: OVER
— Carr has thrown for more than 1.5 TDs in 13 of his last 20 games.
— That includes a streak of four straight games with at least two passing touchdowns.
— Making matters even better, Carr has tossed for two or more scores in nine of his last 12 as an underdog.
Bottom Line: OVER 1.5 Pass TD. We should note that there’s juice (-135) for OVER 1.5 TDs here. However, BetPrep still has an expected value of 4.99% on the over, and that appears to be the best side here.
WR Bryan Edwards – Las Vegas Raiders
Line: Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
BetPrep Projection: 3.08
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— Edwards is averaging 4.33 targets per contest through three games this season.
— Edwards has gone OVER 3.5 receptions in just one of his last 12 games.
Bottom Line: UNDER 3.5 Receptions. Even though Edwards has noticed a heightened role for the Raiders this season, he’s still not seeing many targets per game. Looking towards under 3.5 receptions (-135) seems like the correct side.
RB Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Over/Under 59.5 Passing Yards
BetPrep Projection: 57.86
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— Ekeler has topped 59 rushing yards in just five of his last 20 games (25%).
— That includes going over this total in three of 11 games (27.27%) with the Chargers favored.
— While he has come close, Ekeler hasn’t surpassed 59 rushing yards in five straight games.
Bottom Line: UNDER 59.5 Rush Yards. The Chargers don’t give Ekeler a ton of carries, so he’ll need strong efficiency to beat this total. It’s an uphill climb that has me leaning under. The BetPrep model agrees with positive expected value to the under.
RB Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Over/Under 0.5 Rush TD
BetPrep Projection: 0.48
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— This has a similar chart as Ekeler’s rushing yardage prop. The LAC running back has notched a rushing score in just two of his last 20 games.
— That includes one rushing TD in 11 games with the Chargers favored.
— Fun fact: Ekeler has not scored a rushing TD against an AFC West opponent since the beginning of 2019. He’s 0-10 over that span.
Bottom Line: UNDER 0.5 Rush TD. One long scamper could break the rushing total and touchdown over. However, history is on the side of the under for both. Ekeler is more of a receiving extraordinaire out of the backfield, and there’s value in taking his rushing props under their listed totals.
