The Green Bay Packers struggled in Week 1, but they’ve turned their season around at this point. They own a 2-1 record, and they’re currently tied for first in the NFC North. They won their only home game thus far, and the Packers are coming off of an impressive win on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The New England Patriots haven’t been as successful. They own a 1-2 record, which leaves them last in the AFC East. They own losses to the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens, but they have a tight win over the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Patriots vs. Packers predictions.
Patriots vs. Packers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +9 (-110) | +360 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| @ Packers | -9 (-110) | -450 | U 40.5 (-110) |
Odds via BetFred Sportsbook as of 2 p.m. ET on Sep. 29.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 2
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
- TV: CBS
Patriots vs. Packers Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Patriots vs. Packers as well as the NFL in general:
- New England enters this game with an 0-2-1 ATS record.
- Green Bay owns a 2-1 ATS record in 2022.
- As of Thursday afternoon, 58% of the bets and 70% of the handle were on Green Bay -9.5 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 52% of the bets and 83% of the handle is on under 40.5 points.
- New England owns a 1-2 over/under record this season.
- Green Bay’s posted an 0-3 over/under record in 2022.
Mac Jones Injury
Mac Jones suffered an ankle injury in last week’s loss to Baltimore. He was initially expected to miss several weeks, but he hasn’t been ruled out yet. Jones hasn’t practiced yet this week, and it looks as if he’s going to ultimately miss this game.
If Jones is ruled out, New England already announced that Brian Hoyer will draw the start. Hoyer’s only started two games since the 2017 season. He struggled in both games, throwing for 334 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions.
Per sources, Mac Jones is in the facility and participating in game planning. The #Patriots QB has to told multiple teammates to not count him out of this weekend's game at Green Bay, and is still operating as if he has a chance. Practice is scheduled for around 12:35 today.
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) September 29, 2022
There’s very little reason to believe Hoyer is going to be able to find success in New England’s offense. Oddly enough, it isn’t out of the question that he would be a small upgrade over Jones.
Granted, he likely isn’t an upgrade over a healthy Mac Jones, but that wouldn’t be the case this week. Jones, who is already a relatively limited quarterback, would be even more limited with his ankle injury if he were able to start.
Regardless of who starts, the Patriots are going to rely heavily on their run game. Green Bay should be able to load the box, forcing Hoyer or Jones to beat them through the air. They should have a massive edge with a dominant defense.
Green Bay’s New-Look Offense
Green Bay’s offense doesn’t have quite as much upside as in the past. They don’t have the same deep threat as previous years, and they’re going to continue to make AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones the focal points.
Romeo Doubs looks as if he’s taking over their WR1, and he does come with some big play potential. Green Bay isn’t generally targeting him deep down the field, though, and they’re consistently throwing the ball closer to the line of scrimmage throughout their games.
Avoided tackle rate leaders through three weeks:
(% of rushes on which a tackle was avoided)56% – Aaron Jones
53% – Austin Ekeler
48% – Nick Chubb
46% – Michael Carter, Javonte Williams
42% – Raheem Mostert
41% – CEH, David Montgomery
38% – Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
Overall, they’re going to continue to rely on Jones and Dillon to get the job done on the ground and with short passes. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are their other two receivers, and they generally don’t come with elite big-play potential.
Keep in mind, Green Bay certainly has the ability to score the ball. They’re looking to keep the clock running, though, and this is a team that relies more on their defense than in past seasons.
Patriots vs. Packers Predictions
Both of these teams will be looking to run the ball and shorten the game. The Patriots don’t have the passing upside to consistently score against Green Bay either. The Packers have shut down some solid offenses this season, and New England isn’t the team that is going to figure their defense out.
On the other side, Green Bay should be running the clock out later in the game. They’ll also focus on quick passes and their rushing attack early on. I’m expecting this game to be low scoring with Green Bay finding the win.
Pick: Under 40.5 total points | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook