The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Sept. 28
Matt Manning: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.43 ERA indicates
Manning has thrown well for Detroit throughout the season. He owns a 2-3 record with a 3.43 ERA through 12 starts in 2022. He’s struggled more than that, though, as he also enters this game with a 4.39 xFIP.
Manning has been somewhat of a boom or bust option this season. He’s posted 3.39 and 3.74 xFIPs in two of his last five starts. He recorded 6.38, 6.48, and 5.46 xFIPs in the other three starts.
Manning gets an interesting matchup against Kansas City tonight. They aren’t a dominant offense by any stretch, but they have posted a .328 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The right-hander will benefit from throwing in Detroit, though.
Bottom Line: Manning is due for regression, and Kansas City is an offense that is heating up. It wouldn’t be surprising if they get to him at some point in this game.
Adrian Martinez: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Los Angeles Angels | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.10 ERA suggests
Martinez has looked awful in his first season with the Oakland A’s. He’s posted a 4-5 record with a 6.10 ERA through 10 starts. His .317 BABIP and 4.22 xFIP suggest he’s due for plenty of regression as he throws more inning, though.
Martinez has been extremely unlucky in recent starts. He’s posted 3.30, 4.60, and 3.66 xFIPs over his last three starts. He’s allowed 16 earned runs over 13.2 innings in those starts.
Martinez gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. They’ve struggled for the majority of the 2022 season, but they have recorded a .320 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: The Angels are heating up offensively, but I’m expecting some positive regression for Martinez here. He makes an interesting option in this game.
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Dean Kremer: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.07 ERA suggests
Kremer has been enjoying a breakout season for the Baltimore Orioles in 2022. He’s recorded an 8-5 record with a 3.07 ERA through 20 games (19 starts). He does own a 4.28 xFIP this season, though.
Kremer is coming off of a dominant start against the Houston Astros, posting a 3.28 xFIP in that game. Prior to that, he recorded 6.81, 5.70, and 4.79 xFIPs. Simply put, he isn’t throwing overly well.
Kremer gets a terrible matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. The Red Sox have caught fire in recent games, and they’ve recorded a .335 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Kremer isn’t all that bad of a pitcher, but he isn’t throwing nearly as well as his baseline metrics suggest. He should struggle in a tough matchup against Boston tonight.