The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Sept. 27
Michael Wacha: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.70 ERA indicates
Wacha is enjoying an elite season for the Boston Red Sox. He owns an 11-1 record with a 2.70 ERA through 21 starts. He’s struggled more than that, though, as he also owns a 3.98 xFIP this season.
Wacha has been struggling at times in recent games. He’s posted 3.93, 3.67, and 5.44 xFIPs in his last 3 starts. The right-hander’s seen plenty of mixed results in terms of advanced metrics throughout the season.
Wacha gets a tough matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. They’ve been playing at a higher level in recent games, as they’ve recorded a .331 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in a more hitter-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Wacha is due for regression, and I’m expecting that could come tonight. Baltimore is playing well at the moment, and they could find success in this game.
German Marquez: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants | 9:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.15 ERA suggests
Marquez has struggled quite a bit throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded an 8-12 record with a 5.15 ERA through 29 starts. He’s due for positive regression, as he also owns a 4.06 xFIP this season.
Marquez has been a bit of a boom or bust pitcher in terms of advanced metrics. He posted a dominant 2.21 xFIP in his last start. He recorded 5.38 and 7.35 xFIPs in his two starts before that.
Marquez gets a great matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They’ve been struggling offensively for quite some time, and they own a .297 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Marquez hasn’t been throwing well this season, but this is a great matchup for him. He should find success against a weak San Francisco offense.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
James Kaprielian: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Los Angeles Angels | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.43 ERA suggests
Kaprielian has been struggling through 24 starts this season. He’s posted a 4-9 record with a 4.43 ERA thus far. He’s due for even more regression, though, as he also enters this game with a 5.28 xFIP.
Kaprielian is coming off of a great start against the Seattle Mariners, posting a 2.26 xFIP. He was struggling for quite sometime before that, recording 5.76, 5.47, 11.71, and 7.88 in his four starts before that.
Kaprielian gets an interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Angels. They aren’t a dominant offense, but they have recorded a .311 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Kaprielian isn’t a good pitcher, and he gets a tougher matchup tonight. He should struggle against Los Angeles.