The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Sept. 22
Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.09 ERA indicates
Cueto has thrown extremely well throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 7-8 record with a 3.09 ERA through 22 games (21 starts). He’s due for some regression, though, as he also owns a 4.43 xFIP.
Cueto has been struggling in recent starts, although his baseline metrics don’t always show it. He’s posted a 4.88 or worse xFIP in 5 of his last 6 starts. He’s recorded 5.98 and 6.09 xFIPs in his last 2 starts.
Cueto gets a terrible matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight. They’ve been playing extremely well in recent games, posting a .340 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The Guardians are also a team that will consistently put the ball in play.
Bottom Line: Cueto isn’t throwing nearly as well as his numbers suggest, and he should struggle against Cleveland tonight.
Michael Wacha: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees | 7:15 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.61 ERA suggests
Wacha is quietly enjoying an elite season in 2022. He’s recorded an 11-1 record with a 2.61 ERA through 20 starts. That doesn’t tell the whole story, as he also enters this game with a 3.90 xFIP.
Wacha has been throwing at a high level in recent games. He’s been a bit shakier in recent starts, though, as he’s posted 3.67 and 3.92 xFIPs over his last two starts. He’s seen regression in three of his last five starts.
Wacha gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees tonight. The Yankees have posted a .368 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in a hitter-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Wacha has been elite, but his advanced metrics suggest that he isn’t throwing at quite that high of a level. He’s certainly a good pitcher, but he could struggle in such a difficult matchup tonight.
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Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.99 ERA suggests
Berrios has surprisingly struggled throughout the 2022 season. He enters this game with an 11-5 record and a 4.99 ERA. He also owns a 4.17 xFIP through 29 starts this season.
Berrios hasn’t been throwing overly well in recent games, but he has been finding positive regression. His xFIP sits above 4.85 in each of his last three starts, but he’s posted a 3.00 or better ERA in each of those games. Overall, he’s seen some type of positive regression in five of his last six starts.
Berrios gets an interesting matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, and they own a .288 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This will also be played in a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Berrios isn’t in great form at the moment, but this is a solid match. He’s due for more positive regression as the season comes to an end, and he could find some success tonight.