Last week, we were treated to an AFC West showdown between two of the NFL’s best clubs. This week, it’s a less exciting AFC North battle. The game’s total is low, and the Browns are home favorites.
I expect the Browns to handle their business at home. As a result, the game script should be good for Cleveland’s run game. That will play into the following Thursday Night Football prop bets.
TNF Prop Bets: Browns vs. Steelers Player Props
Here’s a trio of Browns vs. Steelers player props I like for Thursday’s game:
Steelers RB Najee Harris Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
First, the game script should be bad for Pittsburgh’s rushing outlook. The Browns are favored. So, if the Browns do what the bettors expect, Pittsburgh will eventually be forced to air it out in catch-up mode.
However, Pittsburgh’s rushing attack is also lousy. Najee Harris is averaging a pathetic 2.9 yards per rush attempt and 36.0 rushing yards per game in two games. In addition, Harris’s Pro Football Focus (PFF) rushing grade is tied for 40th out of 51 backs with at least 10 rushing attempts this year.
PFF also hasn’t been impressed with Pittsburgh’s run blocking, grading them 19th. Another advanced stats provider has graded Pittsburgh’s run blocking poorly, too. Football Outsiders ranks Pittsburgh’s offensive line 28th in Adjusted Line Yards.
Finally, there is some injury concern to consider with Harris. He suffered a Lisfranc injury in camp and had a different foot injury after Week 1.
Tests today on Steelers’ RB Najee Harris’ foot injury came back negative and there is a belief that, according to a source, he “should be good to go” Sunday vs. the Patriots.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 12, 2022
As a result, there’s a contingency path to hitting Harris’s rushing yardage under.
Where to bet: Najee Harris Under 54.5 Rush Yards | -113 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Browns RB Nick Chubb Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
A good game script is ideal for Chubb’s rushing outlook. He’s come out of the blocks hot this year, rushing for 141 yards in Week 1 and 87 in Week 2. Chubb’s excellence on the ground has earned him PFF’s second-highest rushing grade this season. Additionally, Cleveland’s offensive line has had the highest Adjusted Line Yards. So, the talent and offensive line help are there for Chubb.
The matchup is sweet, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 18th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They’ve also coughed up 133 rushing yards and 124 through the first two weeks. Therefore, Chubb should steamroll Pittsburgh’s mediocre-to-bad run defense.
Where to bet: Nick Chubb Over 83.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Browns TE David Njoku Under 2.5 Receptions (+110)
If the Browns lead, they’ll pass as little as they have to, period. The Browns have had 66 rush attempts by running backs or wide receivers compared to only 55 pass attempts when tied or leading this year. So, again, the Browns want to run, run, and run some more.
In addition, David Njoku has primarily been a non-factor in Cleveland’s limited passing attack. He’s had four receptions on six targets. In addition, per PFF, he’s been targeted on a paltry11.5% of his routes. Comparatively, fellow tight end Harrison Bryant has commanded a target on 25% of his routes.
Thus, Bryant can cannibalize Njoku’s passing-game work. Finally, the matchup is challenging for Cleveland’s tight ends. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers have yielded only six receptions on 13 targets for 48 yards to tight ends this season. So, I’m excited to bet on under 2.5 receptions for Njoku at +110 odds on DraftKings.
Where to bet: David Njoku Under 2.5 Receptions | +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook