Ohio State is expected to roll to another CFB playoff berth this season, but they’ll face one of their stiffer tests in Week 4. They’re taking on Wisconsin, which has a historically excellent program. The Badgers won nine games last year, posting a winning record in seven consecutive seasons under head coach Paul Chryst.
However, Wisconsin hasn’t been as good as expected starting the year, suffering an ugly home defeat to Washington State. The Badgers now enter this road matchup at Ohio State as significant underdogs.
Can Wisconsin keep things competitive, or will this be a minor speed bump for the Buckeyes? Let’s dive into my Wisconsin vs. Ohio State predictions and best bets for this Sunday evening matchup.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | +18 (-110) | +675 | O 56.5 (-110) |
| @ Ohio State | -18 (-110) | -975 | U 56.5 (-110) |
Odds via BetFred Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. ET on Sep. 20.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 24
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)
- TV: ABC
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Predictions Trends
- Ohio State is 3-0 this season (1-2 against the spread).
- Wisconsin is 2-1 this season (1-1 against the spread).
- Ohio State was 6-6-1 against the spread last season.
- Wisconsin was 6-7 against the spread last season.
- Ohio State is 13-8 against the spread as a favorite of greater than two touchdowns in Big 10 games since 2019-20.
- Wisconsin is 5-11 against the spread against ranked opponents since 2018-19.
- The Under is 23-25-1 in Wisconsin games since the start of 2018-19.
- As of Tuesday, DraftKings reports 83% of the spread bets and 89% of the handle are on Ohio State.
- For the total, 79% of the bets and 72% of the handle are on the under.
Can Wisconsin Keep Up With OSU?
While most of college football has adapted to the modern game, Wisconsin has kept things pretty traditional. They long boasted one of the best offensive lines in football, and they have produced some dominant running games.
However, they have the pieces to find some success in the passing game this season. Quarterback Graham Mertz is entering his fourth collegiate season, and he was one of the top passing recruits in the history of the program. He ranked as the No. 3 pro-style passer in the class per 247 Sports, but he has yet to live up to the hype.
That said, he’s started to make some strides in 2022-23. He’s averaged 11.7 adjusted yards per attempt – easily the top mark of his career – to go along with six touchdowns and two picks. He currently ranks eighth in the nation in adjusted yards per attempt, putting him just slightly behind Caleb Williams and Stetson Bennett.
Fun fact, Graham Mertz ranks 5th in the nation in QB Rating at 190.9 pic.twitter.com/LRHQhcxmgp
— Badger_Recruiting (@BadgerRecruiti1) September 18, 2022
With Mertz taking a step forward, Wisconsin has the makings of a quality offense. The Badgers haven’t struggled to move the ball this year, averaging 478.7 yards per game. Their average of 40.0 points per game ranks 19th in the nation. Even in their disappointing loss vs. Washington State, the Badgers racked up 401 yards of offense and outgained the Cougars by nearly 150 yards. They simply shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers and 106 penalty yards.
They’ll have to avoid silly mistakes vs. Ohio State, but this is one of the few teams in the Big 10 that can legitimately hang with the Buckeyes.
Can Anyone Challenge Ohio State?
It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ohio State will make it to the College Football Playoff this season. They do have to survive a game vs. Michigan, but even if they lose that matchup, there’s a chance that both of those squads will still make the postseason.
Talent-wise, Ohio State is miles above the rest of the conference. They rank third in 247’s composite talent index, while the next Big 10 team – Michigan – is all the way down in 14th. Ohio State has looked the part so far this season, winning their first three games by a combined score of 100 points.
CJ Stroud placed this ball PERFECTLY 🎯 (via @SwaptySports) pic.twitter.com/uJ5tmXSkDe
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 17, 2022
Of course, that doesn’t tell the full story. No one cares that they blew out Toledo and Arkansas State the past two weeks, and they struggled to put points on the board vs. Notre Dame in Week 1.
Even though Notre Dame was ranked No. 5 at the time of their matchup and Wisconsin is currently unranked, this is the biggest test of the early year for the Buckeyes. If they can breeze through the Badgers, it might be smooth sailing until a showdown vs. the Wolverines in the final week of the regular season.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Predictions
I have no doubt in my mind that Ohio State is the best team in the Big 10, and they’re probably the best team not named Georgia or Alabama. Still, this is a lot of points against a very good team.
Wisconsin lost some respect from the public following that loss vs. Washington State, but they should give Ohio State a serious run for their money. They have the quarterback, they have the offensive line, and they have the defense. If they can put it all together, this game should be competitive in the fourth quarter.
I ultimately think the Buckeyes pull this one out, but I’m expecting the game to land within two touchdowns.
Pick: Wisconsin +18 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook