Matt LaMarca

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Predictions & Best Bets – NCAAF Week 4 Picks

Sep 17, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks punt returner Bryce Stephens (14) returns a punt for a touchdown against the Missouri State Bears in the fourth quarter at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas won 38-27.
Image Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

College football Week 4 features a big SEC tilt between Arkansas and Texas A&M. Both teams entered the season with high expectations, and both are currently ranked in the AP top 25.

Arkansas has gotten off to a perfect start, winning each of its first three contests. The Razorbacks started the year with a seven-point win over a ranked Cincinnati squad, and they’ve followed that up with wins over South Carolina and Missouri State. However, this will be their first road game of the year.

Texas A&M hasn’t been quite as impressive. They opened the season with a 31-point win over Sam Houston State, but they followed that up with an embarrassing home loss to Appalachian State. It was Appalachian State’s first win over an AP top 10 squad since joining the Sun Belt conference. That said, the Aggies bounced back with a win over previously unbeaten Miami last week.

Can the Hogs keep rolling, or will the Aggies get their season back on track? Let’s dive into these Arkansas vs. Texas A&M predictions and best bets.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Arkansas+2 (-115)+105O 48 (-110)
@ Texas A&M-2 (-105)-125U 48 (-110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2 p.m. ET on Sep. 20

Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 24
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
  • TV: ESPN

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Trends

  • Arkansas is 3-0 this season (2-0 against the spread).
  • Texas A&M is 2-1 this season (1-1 against the spread).
  • Arkansas was 9-4 last year (8-5 against the spread).
  • Texas A&M was 8-4 last year (7-5 against the spread).
  • Home teams are 102-77-3 against the spread in SEC matchups between ranked teams since 2005.
  • Arkansas is 11-4 against the spread as an underdog over the past two years.
  • Teams are 95-125-4 against the spread when facing a ranked team for the second straight week since 2019.
  • The Under is 2-0 in Texas A&M games this season, while the Over is 2-0 in Arkansas games.
  • As of Tuesday, DraftKings reports that 46% of the spread bets and 56% of the handle are on Arkansas.
  • For the total, 44% of the bets and 75% of the handle are on the under.

How Good Is The Arkansas Defense?

At this point, there are no questions about the Arkansas offense. They were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, leading the SEC in rushing while ranking 10th nationally in passing efficiency. Overall, the Razorbacks averaged nearly 450 yards of offense per game while averaging 31 points.

Their offense has shown no signs of slowing down in 2022-23. They’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their first three games and increased their output to more than 500 yards per game. Their offensive line has generated massive holes in the run game, and quarterback K.J. Jefferson is an NFL-caliber prospect. He’s averaged 10.8 adjusted yards per attempt this season with six touchdowns and one pick, and he’s added 169 yards and three scores on the ground.

However, the defense remains a question mark. They were vastly improved on that side of the ball last year, allowing an average of just 367.7 yards per game. They held their opponents under 400 yards of total offense in all eight of 12 games after doing it just twice the year prior.

So far this season, they appear to have taken a step back. They’ve allowed all three opponents to rack up at least 400 yards of offense, including a pedestrian Missouri State squad. They have generated five turnovers, but if they can’t improve on that side of the ball, it’s hard to see their level of success continuing in the SEC.

Will Texas A&M Play Up To Their Talent Level?

From a pure talent perspective, Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the country. They’ve been so good at recruiting recently that Nick Saban felt the need to call them out during SEC media day. To be fair, Saban seems like a pretty easy guy to piss off, but when you’ve caught the attention of a six-time champion, you’re doing something right.

Texas A&M had the best recruiting class in 2021, securing a whopping eight five-star prospects. That’s as many as Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Michigan combined. Overall, they rank fourth in 247 Sports’ composite talent index — trailing only Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State.

That said, that talent has yet to show up on the field. Losing to a team like Appalachian State is simply inexcusable, and they scored just 17 points in their home win over Miami. Miami actually outgained them by nearly 130 yards in that contest, so they have some major question marks on the offensive side of the ball.

Their defense should continue to hold up their end of the bargain – they ranked 3rd in points per game allowed nationally last year – but you’ll need to put up points to win in the SEC.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Predictions

Texas A&M has the edge on paper, but the one area where the Aggies have questions is at quarterback. They switched to Max Johnson as the starter vs. Miami last week, but his numbers on the year than Haynes King. The one thing Johnson has done is protect the football, but that’s just a part of the equation. You need to generate points as well, and Johnson has averaged a mediocre 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt.

The Aggies should have a bit more success offensively against Arkansas, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to keep up. Even against a strong defense, the Razorbacks have too much firepower to completely slow down. They hung 35 points on Alabama last season, 51 on Ole Miss, and 40 on Texas, all of which were ranked during their matchups.

Ultimately, you can always count on Texas A&M to remind you of one of life’s great truths: Talent isn’t everything.

Pick: Arkansas moneyline | +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook