The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Sept. 16
Michael Wacha: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.69 ERA indicates
Wacha has been throwing at an extremely high level this season. He owns an 11-1 record with a 2.69 ERA through 19 starts. He’s due for some regression, though, as he also owns a 3.92 xFIP this season.
Wacha has seen mixed results in recent games. He’s posted a 3.92 or worse xFIP in 4 of his last 7 starts. His xFIP topped out at 6.79 against the Toronto Blue Jays over that span.
Wacha gets a solid matchup against the Kansas City Royals tonight. The Royals have struggled in recent games, posting a .271 team wOBA over the last 14 days. He’ll also have the benefit of throwing at home, where he’s been a better pitcher this season.
Bottom Line: Wacha is due for regression, but this isn’t a matchup that he’s likely to struggle in. The right-hander should find plenty of success against Kansas City in this game.
Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.18 ERA suggests
Giolito has struggled quite a bit throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 10-9 record with a 5.18 ERA through 26 starts. His advanced metrics look fine, though, as he also owns a 3.65 xFIP this season.
Giolito has been throwing well in recent games as well. He’s posted a 3.01 xFIP or better in 4 of his last 6 starts. The results haven’t been there, but it’s only a matter of time before his results start to match his advanced metrics.
Giolito gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers tonight. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, recording a .303 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The right-hander recorded elite advanced metrics against them throughout the season as well.
Bottom Line: Although Giolito hasn’t been great against Detroit this season, his advanced metrics look great against them. He’s due for a dominant start, and I’m expecting him to find plenty of success in this game.
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Adrian Martinez: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Houston Astros | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.59 ERA suggests
Martinez has thrown in limited games this season, but he’s struggled quite a bit. He’s posted a 4-4 record with a 5.59 ERA through 8 starts. His xFIP sits at 4.29, suggesting he’s due for positive regression.
Martinez isn’t an overly dominant arm. He’s posted an xFIP below 4.02 in each of his last 4 starts. He’s recorded as low as a 2.30 xFIP throughout the season.
Martinez gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. They’ve recorded a .322 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The Astros will benefit from playing at home in this matchup as well.
Bottom Line: Martinez isn’t a great pitcher, but he’s throwing better than his numbers suggest. This likely isn’t the matchup he’ll find that positive regression in, but he should be able to avoid getting rocked early in this game.