Matt LaMarca

Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions & Best Bets – NFL Picks Week 2

Sep 11, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass in the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Image Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 2 features a heavyweight NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints. Both teams currently sit at 1-0 and have playoff aspirations. The Buccaneers won the division in 2021-22, but the Saints won the division each of the four previous years. Of course, that was with Drew Brees at quarterback.

The Saints will benefit from home-field advantage in this contest, but they’re still listed as slight underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook. Can they pull off the upset? Let’s dive into these Buccaneers vs. Saints predictions and best bets!

Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions

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Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Buccaneers-2.5-140O 44 (-115)
@ Saints+2.5+120U 44 (-105)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1 p.m. ET on Sept. 15

Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Sept. 18
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
  • TV: FOX

Buccaneers vs. Saints Trends

  • The Buccaneers were 13-4 last season (9-8 against the spread)
  • The Saints were 9-8 last season (9-8 against the spread)
  • The Buccaneers won 19-3 last week, covering the -2.5-point spread
  • The Saints won 27-26 in Week 1, failing to cover the -5.5-point spread
  • The Buccaneers were 3-6 as road favorites last year
  • The Saints were 1-3 as home underdogs last year
  • Tom Brady is 191-128 against the spread since 2003, including 17-8 against the spread in domes
  • The Saints are 3-16 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season since 2013
  • As of Thursday, DraftKings reports that 74% of the spread bets and 66% of the handle are on the Buccaneers
  • As for the total, 71% of the bets and 61% of the handle are on the over

How Good Is The Buccaneers’ Offense?

Tom Brady was phenomenal for the Buccaneers last season. He led the NFL in passing attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, and he led the Buccaneers to a phenomenal offense. They ranked second in the league in points per game and third in yards, but they have a few additional questions this season.

For starters, Brady is now 45 years old. That’s pretty much unheard of at the quarterback position, and he has to decline at some point, right? He got off to a slow start in Week 1, averaging just 6.93 adjusted yards per attempt. That ranked just 16th at the position.

Brady also technically retired in the offseason and spent virtually no time with the team during training camp. Even if he hasn’t declined, finding his groove might take him a bit of time.

Additionally, Brady is going to have to survive without Chris Godwin. The Bucs have plenty of excellent pass-catchers, but Godwin is arguably their best. He led the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards last year, despite playing in just 14 games.

The Buccaneers’ offense was mediocre in Week 1. The Cowboys represented a tough matchup, but it’s fair to have some questions with them at this point.

Should Saints Worry About Week 1?

The Saints managed to pull out a one-point victory in Week 1, but they probably should’ve lost. They trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter, but the Falcons took their foot off the gas and let the Saints catch up. Overall, the Falcons outgained the Saints 416-385 and had a win probability of 95%.

That result is concerning on its own, but the fact that it happened against the Falcons is even more concerning. The Falcons were expected to be the worst team in the league this season, so it was a major shock that they thoroughly dominated the Saints for three quarters.

They’re going to face a steep step up in weight class this week, so it remains to be seen if they can keep this game competitive.

However, the Superdome could be the great equalizer. The Saints still have one of the best home-field advantages in football, and they have previously been a dominant home squad. They managed to beat the Buccaneers 36-27 at home last year, and their defense created three turnovers. They’ll need another performance like that to pull off the upset.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions

The Saints are receiving some sharp activity in this spot, which has caused this line to drop below the key number of three on DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a big deal – it’s arguably the most important number in NFL betting – and it makes the Saints a whole lot less appealing. However, I do think they’re the correct side.

Instead, I’m focusing on the under. The Saints’ defense didn’t show up last week, but they’re still a quality unit. They ranked third in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA last year, so I’m expecting a bounce-back performance vs. a Bucs’ offense that might not be as potent as expected.

On the other side, the Bucs’ offense dominated the Cowboys in Week 1, so I expect them to hold up their end of the bargain. These two teams combined for just nine points in their second meeting last year, so 44.0 feels high.

Pick: Under 44.0 | -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook