Matt LaMarca

Michigan State vs. Washington Predictions & Best Bets – NCAAF Week 3 Picks

Michigan State cornerback Justin White (30) reacts to a play against Akron during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.
Image Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of the most entertaining matchups in Week 3 features Michigan State vs. Washington. Both teams enter this contest at 2-0, and they’ve averaged a combined 92 points per game. Michigan State enters this team as the No. 11 squad in the country, but the unranked Huskies are slight home favorites.

Both squads have made major changes compared to last year. Washington has a new head coach in Kalen DeBeor, and both teams were active in the transfer portal. 247 Sports gives both teams a top 25 ranking in transfer talent added, bringing in a combined 17 players.

Can Michigan State pull off the upset on the road, or will Washington establish itself as a legit threat in the Pac-12? Let’s dive into our Michigan State vs. Washington predictions and best bets!

Michigan State vs. Washington Predictions

For my Michigan State vs. Washington predictions, I’ll be placing these wagers at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Michigan State vs. Washington Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Michigan State +3+135O 56.5 (-110)
@ Washington-3-110U 56.5 (-110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6 p.m. ET on Sep. 13

Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 17
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Husky Stadium (Seattle, WA)
  • TV: ABC

Michigan State vs. Washington Trends

  • Michigan State is 2-0 this season (2-0 against the spread).
  • Washington is 2-0 this season (1-0 against the spread).
  • Michigan State was 9-2-1 against the spread last season.
  • Washington was 3-8 against the spread last season.
  • Michigan State was 4-1 as an underdog last season.
  • Underdogs are 364-330-10 against the spread in matchups between undefeated teams.
  • Pac-12 teams are 25-18-1 against the spread against ranked Big 10 opponents.
  • The Under is 64-50-1 when set below 60 points between two teams that average at least 40 points per game.
  • As of Tuesday, 83% of the spread bets and 75% of the handle are on Michigan State.
  • For the total, 36% of the bets and 59% of the handle are on the Under.

Michigan State: Most Underrated Team In The Country?

Michigan State went 11-2 last year, but you could argue they weren’t as good as their record. Their two losses were embarrassing – they lost by 11 points to Purdue and 49 to Ohio State – and none of their wins were super impressive. They did beat Michigan in a game where they were outgained by 157 yards, and they managed to win a bowl game against Pittsburgh without star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Overall, it’s one of the more underwhelming 11-win seasons in recent memory.

That said, sleep on Sparty at your own risk this year. Their defense was awful last year, particularly in the passing game. They surrendered nearly 325 yards per game and were arguably the worst unit in the Big 10.

However, the entire defense got a massive overhaul in the offseason. They brought in a host of transfers who should make an impact. Jacoby Windmon came over from UNLV after leading the Rebels with 118 tackles. Mississippi State transfer Aaron Brule has 129 tackles and seven sacks over the past two seasons. Khris Bogle is a former four-star recruit who transferred from Florida, while Ameer Speed was a part of the dominant Georgia defense last year.

The defense hasn’t really been tested through the first two weeks, but they’ve allowed just 13 total points to Western Michigan and Akron. If they can continue to hold up their end of the bargain, the offense is more than good enough to secure plenty of wins.

Is Washington’s Offense Legit?

Washington is coming off a dismal 2021 season, finishing with just four wins in 12 contests. They ranked 108th in the nation in points per game and averaged just 325.6 yards of total offense.

However, things figure to be much different this year. New coach Kalen DeBoer helmed a Fresno State unit that finished 14th in the nation in offense last year. They averaged 33 points, and 327 passing yards per game, and Fresno is not exactly a college football powerhouse.

They also secured Michael Penix from Indiana in the transfer portal, and he has a dynamic skill set. He was a Heisman Trophy dark horse heading into last year, but injuries limited him to just five games. He’s off to a phenomenal start in Washington, averaging 11.5 adjusted yards per attempt with six touchdowns and one interception through his first two games.

Washington has averaged a gaudy 571 yards per game to start the year. Of course, those performances have come against Kent State and Portland State. It remains to be seen how they’ll fare against a much-improved Michigan State unit.

Michigan State vs. Washington Predictions

The total on this contest is fascinating. These two teams combine for more than 90 points per game, yet the total currently sits at just 56.5. Why so low?

The obvious answer is that both teams have feasted on cupcake defenses to start the year. Now that they’re getting into the meat of their schedule expect to see some serious regression from these squads.

I think there’s some value with the Spartans at +3, but I’m more inclined to take the under. Michigan State loves to control the clock with their ground game, while Washington should hit a few speed bumps. History says that taking the under between these two teams is a smart idea, and the sharp bettors appear to agree. The under has received far more dollars than tickets, which suggests some professional action. I’m willing to tag along.

Pick: Under 56.5 points | -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook