The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Sept. 8
JP Sears: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A’s | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.37 ERA indicates
Sears has thrown well recently. He’s posted a 5-1 record with a 2.37 ERA through 12 games (7 starts). He’s thrown significantly worse than these numbers suggest, though, as he also owns a 4.50 xFIP.
Sears has struggled quite a bit in recent games. He’s posted a 3.69 xFIP or worse in each of his last 6 games. He recorded a 6.39 xFIP against the Houston Astros in one of those games.
Sears gets a tough matchup against the Chicago White Sox tonight. They’ve posted a .318 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and they’ve found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout the season. He will benefit from the pitcher-friendly stadium, though.
Bottom Line: Sears is due for plenty of regression, and this is a tough matchup. I favor Chicago by a wide margin tonight.
Luis Cessa: Cincinnati Reds
Matchup: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs | 2:20 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.18 ERA suggests
Cessa has struggled throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 3-2 record with a 5.18 ERA through 40 games (4 starts). His xFIP sits at only 4.04, though, and he’s due for plenty of positive regression.
Cessa has struggled with a 6.00 ERA through his 4 starts this season. With that being said, his advanced metrics are better as a starter. He owns a 3.76 xFIP in those starts compared to a 4.14 xFIP through his 36 relief appearances.
Cessa gets an interesting matchup against the Chicago Cubs. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, and they’ve posted a .302 team wOBA over the last 14 days. There aren’t heavy winds in Chicago, which will help the right-hander as well.
Bottom Line: Cessa has struggled as a starter, but he’s gotten extremely unlucky. This is the type of game that he can find success in.
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Nestor Cortes: New York Yankees
Matchup: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.68 ERA suggests
Cortes has been a high-end option for the New York Yankees this season. He boasts a 9-4 record with a 2.68 ERA through 23 starts. He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 3.70 xFIP.
Cortes is an interesting pitcher because of his ability to throw a multitude of ways. He changes how he throws basically every pitch, which could allow him to avoid regression. He posted a 2.90 ERA compared to a 4.18 xFIP last season. Prior to that, his ERA sat above his xFIP for three consecutive seasons, though.
Cortes gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who have seen mixed results against left-handed pitching this season. They own a .313 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and they come with plenty of upside in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Cortes is a dominant pitcher, but this isn’t the best matchup. He’s due for some regression, and he could struggle a bit against the Twins.