John Supowitz

Alabama vs. Texas Predictions & Best Bets – NCAAF Picks Week 2

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young claps his hands together at the snap of the football
Image Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Tide and Longhorns get their first true tests of the season in what could be a rivalry in the making with Texas moving over to the SEC. 

Former No. 1 recruit Quinn Ewers can prove he’s the guy to bring Texas back to glory if he can get this win at home against Alabama.

Let’s break down the odds and offer our Alabama vs. Texas predictions for this intriguing non-conference battle.

Alabama vs. Texas Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Alabama-20.5-1400O 64.5 (-115)
@ Texas+20.5+850U 64.5 (-105)

 Odds via Betway Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. on Sept 7. 

Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • Location: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)
  • TV: FOX

Alabama vs. Texas Trends

  • Alabama is 13-9  ATS in its last 22 games.
  • Alabama is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 games when they are favored between -21 to -15.
  • Texas is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.
  • As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 88% of tickets and 93% of the money are on the favorite Alabama against the spread. 
  • DraftKings also reports that 85% of betting tickets and 80% of the handle have selected Over 64.5 total points.

Quinn Ewers Solid In His Texas Debut

Texas has some hype coming into the season with 2021 No. 1 recruit Quinn Ewers transferring over from Ohio State. He played well, going 16-for-24 for 225 yards and two touchdowns against Louisiana–Monroe last week. Ewers was sharp, threw well on the run, and found some tight windows.

The biggest concern from that game is that the Texas offensive line gave up a lot of pressure. This needs to be fixed heading into a contest against the supremely talented Alabama defensive line featuring Bronko Nagurski award winner Will Anderson. 

The Longhorns’ run blocking was much better, but when you have Bijan Robinson at running back, he makes it look easy. He was effective both on the ground through the line of scrimmage and made big plays out of screen passes. The Texas offense will have to get the ball out quickly, so expect Robinson to have a heavy role in this game.

Bama Rolls In Easy Week 1 Win

Alabama had about as perfect of a game as you would expect against decent competition in the likes of Mountain West champion Utah State. They served them up a 55-0 donut. 

Bryce Young’s first game as the defending Heisman Trophy winner was excellent. He was very efficient in the air and threw for five touchdowns and ran for 100 yards including a TD. Even with losing some great weapons last year, he spread the ball around efficiently with Traeshon Holden, Kobe Prentice, and Jermaine Burton each getting five catches.

The Crimson Tide’s offensive line was also much improved. They allowed 39 sacks last year, which was the fourth-most in the SEC. We know how athletic Young is when he can evade pressure, but if his line could give him time in the pocket, we could see a back-to-back Heisman winner.

Alabama vs. Texas Predictions

We know how good Alabama is on each side of the ball, and they have some of the best players spread all over the field. 

The Longhorns’ upgrades on offense will help them throw up some points against this defense, but the Tide’s pedigree will eventually help them make stops later in the game. Robinson will hopefully factor into the passing game, but I don’t see him breaking off big runs against that defensive line.

Bama has a clear advantage on both lines, and this is still a Texas defense that gave up 57 to Kansas last year.

Pick: Alabama -20.5 | -110 at Betway Sportsbook