The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, August 11
Edward Cabrera: Miami Marlins
Matchup: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies | 1:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.61 ERA indicates
Cabrera has thrown very limited innings this season, recording a 2-1 record with a 2.61 ERA through only 4 starts. He also owns a 4.29 xFIP through 20.2 innings.
This sample size is a bit too small to trust, but we have other MLB information on Cabrera. He sated 7 games in 2021, posting an 0-3 record with a 5.81 ERA and a 5.14 xFIP. This suggests that he isn’t ready to throw at this high of a level in the Majors.
Cabrera gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. They rank second in the MLB in team wOBA (.369) over the last 14 days, and this game will be taking place in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB.
Bottom Line: Cabrera has looked good early this season, but he gets a terrible matchup tonight. I’d expect the young pitcher to struggle to find success in this game.
Nick Lodolo: Cincinnati Reds
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds | 7:15 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.40 ERA suggests
Lodolo is another pitcher with limited innings this season. He’s posted a 3-3 record with a 4.40 ERA through 9 starts. He quietly boasts a 3.72 xFIP, though, and his .383 BABIP suggests he’s due for positive regression.
Lodolo has been extremely inconsistent. He’s looked great when throwing well, but he’s looked terrible when he struggles. There isn’t truly a middle ground for him at this point. The left-hander posted an xFIP below 3.02 in 5 of his 9 starts while recording an xFIP above 5.98 in 3 of those 9 starts.
Lodolo gets a great matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They rank 28th in the MLB in team wOBA (.270) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Lodolo is always risky because of his control issues. He gets a great matchup, though, and this is a comfortable spot for the young lefty.
Dean Kremer: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.43 ERA suggests
Kremer has quietly thrown well throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 4-3 record with a 3.43 ERA through 11 starts. His xFIP isn’t as successful, though, as it sits at only 4.68 thus far.
Kremer has been finding that regression in recent games. Although he threw a shutout over 6.1 innings in his last game, he’s seen his ERA sit above his xFIP in 4 of his last 6 starts. This comes on the heels of his ERA sitting below his xFIP in 4 of his first 5 starts this season.
Kremer gets an interesting matchup against the Boston Red Sox. They’ve been struggling recently, but they’ve also been injured. Their team is getting healthier, which makes this a tougher matchup than on paper.
Bottom Line: Kremer is going to continue to regress as he throws more innings. Boston isn’t the most difficult challenge at the moment, but they come should be able to find some success in this game.
