The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, August 9
Alek Manoah: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.45 ERA indicates
Manoah has thrown extremely well through 21 starts this season. He owns a 12-5 record with a 2.45 ERA, although his 3.91 xFIP suggests he’s due for some regression.
Toronto’s right-hander comfortably beat regression last season, which is the only reasonable sample size we have on him. It’s realistic that he could simply be a pitcher that throws better than his advanced metrics suggest.
Manoah does get a tough matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight, though. They’ve been playing well in recent weeks, and they have been a better offense at home throughout the season.
Bottom Line: Manoah is due for regression, and this is a tougher matchup. He has the potential to beat that regression, though, and he’s a risky option to bet on or against in this particular matchup.
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.08 ERA suggests
Cobb is in the same position as Alex Wood was last night. He’s waivered throughout the season, posting a 3-6 record with a 4.08 ERA. He owns an elite 2.81 xFIP through 17 starts, though.
Cobb struggled with an injury in the middle of the season, but he looks back on track. He’s recorded 2.94, 0.69, 3.36, and 2.76 xFIPs in his last 4 starts. Still, he struggled a bit in two of those games.
Cobb gets an interesting matchup against the San Diego Padres tonight. They feature what should be one of the best offenses in the MLB, but they haven’t gelled together yet. Overall, the Padres haven’t scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 5 games, and they were shut out last night.
Bottom Line: It’s tough to trust someone like Cobb in this type of matchup. The Padres have an offense that can get to anyone, but the right-hander is throwing extremely well. I’ll go against the grain with him tonight.
Martin Perez: Texas Rangers
Matchup: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.47 ERA suggests
Perez is enjoying an elite season for Texas, but there’s nothing to suggest he can continue it. He’s recorded a 9-2 record with a 2.47 ERA through 21 starts. He also owns a 3.62 xFIP this season.
Truthfully, this season is mind-blowing for Perez. He’s throwing well, but he isn’t throwing at an elite level. He’s the only pitcher in the MLB to have more strikeouts looking than swinging. Everything about his success makes no sense.
Perez gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. The Astros haven’t been playing at all that high of a level offensively in recent games, but they still boast an offense that can get to anyone, especially a non-strikeout left-hander.
Bottom Line: It’s fun watching Perez defy everything, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t come back to Earth soon. The Astros are in a solid spot tonight.
