The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, August 8
Blake Snell: San Diego Padres
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.16 ERA indicates
Snell has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 4-5 record with a 4.16 ERA through 13 starts. He’s also recorded a 3.61 xFIP this season.
Snell struggled quite a bit early in the season, but he’s been throwing at an elite level in recent games. Excluding a matchup in Coors, he’s posted a 3.50 xFIP or better in each of his last 5 starts. He’s also recorded xFIPs under 2.00 in 3 of those starts.
Snell gets a good matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They’ve been struggling a bit, ranking 24th in the MLB in team wOBA (.294) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Snell has been throwing at an elite level, and he’s due for some positive regression. He should find it at home against a struggling San Francisco offense tonight.
Alex Wood: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.42 ERA suggests
Wood has struggled quite a bit this season. He’s posted a 7-9 record with a 4.42 ERA through 21 starts thus far. He’s due for some positive regression, though, as he also owns an outstanding 3.28 xFIP through 106 innings.
Wood recently saw a stretch where he was finding positive regression, but that ended in his last two games against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Still, he’s due for plenty of it, and tonight will be another major test.
Wood will face off against the San Diego Padres, who feature one of the better offenses in the MLB. They currently rank ninth in the league in team wOBA (.319) over the last 14 days, but they’ll continue to get better with their new players as time progresses.
Bottom Line: Wood is throwing at a high level, and he’s due for plenty of positive regression. I’m not sure he’s going to find it against San Diego, though. It may be better to wait on him for a better matchup.
Tyler Beede: Pittsburgh Pirates
Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.89 ERA suggests
Beede has found some success in 2022 because of his role as a reliever. He owns a 1-1 record with a 3.89 ERA through 24 games (1 start). He isn’t throwing nearly that well, though, as he also owns a 4.82 xFIP.
It’s easier to avoid regression when you’re throwing limited innings at a time out of the bullpen. We saw him find some of that regression in his first start of the season against the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed 4 earned runs in only 1.1 innings of work.
Beede gets an interesting matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They aren’t a great offense, but they’ll put the ball in play. It’ll add to the variance, and that could be dangerous for Beede if he’s throwing extended innings.
Bottom Line: Beede isn’t a good pitcher, but he won’t consistently get shelled like he did against the Brewers. Still, he’s a pitcher to fade for the time being.
