It’s a good old-fashioned pitcher’s duel between aces in the National League East tonight. The Mets hand the ball to Max Scherzer, and the Braves counter with Max Fried.
You could say these division foes are cranking the pitching talent up to the max tonight. Bad joke aside, the game has a low total despite Truist Park being a hitter-friendly park. Predictably, the game’s moneyline is tight, too. So, where should bettors place their action? After looking at the betting info for the Braves vs Mets, we’ll offer a prediction and best bet.
Braves vs Mets Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| D-Backs (Keuchel) | +1.5 (-115) | +185 | O 8 (-105) |
| @ Giants (Webb) | -1.5 (-105) | -225 | U 8 (-115) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 9 am ET on July 11.
Scherzer Returns With a Vengeance
Scherzer vs Braves: The Mets made a huge splash in free agency, signing Scherzer on the heels of another brilliant season on the bump. Unfortunately, Scherzer spent the end of May and all of June on the Injured List.
Thankfully, he’s been rock solid when healthy, though. In nine starts totaling 55.2 innings, he’s had a 2.26 ERA, 2.66 xERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 27.6 K-BB%. In addition, Scherzer assuaged any concerns of an IL hangover, firing six innings of scoreless ball on July 5, fanning 11 Reds along the way.
The Braves will have their hands full, and I may have buried their biggest concern. Since last year, Scherzer has held righties to a .224 wOBA. Atlanta usually only has one righty in their first five lineup spots, and they have just three lefties to combat Scherzer with — not that lefties have had it easy, recording only a .269 wOBA against Scherzer since 2021.
Braves offense: The Braves are a top-10 offense against righties, tying for seventh with a 107 wRC+. Unfortunately, they’re not bulletproof. Atlanta’s 24.8 K% against righties has been the third-highest mark this year, making them a candidate to fan relentlessly against a strikeout artist like Scherzer.
Still, Scherzer will have to be sharp to avoid a messy turn. Over the last 30 days, Atlanta has had the third-highest wRC+ (125). They’ve also eaten well at home, enjoying home cooking to the tune of the fourth-highest wOBA (.336) in home tilts this year.
Fried Is Elite As Well
Fried vs Mets: Fried exited his last start a little early with glute tightness. Presumably, it’s not a serious concern since he’s toeing the slab tonight. He’ll look to resume his dominance. In 17 starts totaling 107.1 innings, Fried has had a 2.52 ERA, 2.81 xERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 19.5 K-BB%.
Fried has tied up lefties and righties like the ace he’s opposing. Since last year, the southpaw has held fellow lefties to a .271 wOBA. Meanwhile, righties have also had tough sledding, managing an even worse .266 wOBA.
Mets Offense: Fried has a tricky matchup on the docket tonight. The Mets have the 13th-best offense against lefties this year, as measured by wRC+. However, a 106 wRC+ against lefties is nothing to turn your nose up at. Adding perspective, it’s only one point less than Atlanta’s top-10 wRC+ against righties.
Fried could dodge one challenge in the lineup if Starling Marte is out again. However, even if Marte is out, New York’s lineup should feature seven hitters with at least a 105 wRC+ against lefties since 2019, with five owning at least a 115 wRC+. Moreover, the Mets’ offense isn’t just deep with above-average hitters. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have been top-shelf hitters against lefties, evidenced by their 130 wRC+ and 137 wRC+, respectively.
Braves vs Mets Prediction
This game looks like a pitcher’s duel where both can get into a groove. The under is appealing, but getting plus money on Scherzer is too good of a value for me to pass up. If Marte is out, I might slightly lean toward the under instead.
Finally, parlaying the Mets moneyline and under 7 total runs yields a +314 line. That’s also compelling.
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (+110) | Caesars Sportsbook
