The Best Bets series has gotten back on track with a cool 8-4 record over the past four days.
That 66 percent win rate is giving us momentum akin to the Warriors in the second half, and there’s nobody calling a timeout to slow us down.
Let’s keep up the winning pace with Monday’s three Best Bets, all from Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals!
All odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on May 23.
Best Bets Track Record
Friday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 90-88-2
Bostonian vs. The Book: 26-29-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 25-34
NBA Props: 31-18
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Side: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
The bet: Celtics -6.5 (vs. Miami)
The odds: -115
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) is once again subscribing to the “zig-zag theory” for the NBA playoffs. The Heat outlasted the Celtics 109-103 in Game 3 in Boston, but Perrault is expecting the Celtics to bounce back in a big way for Monday’s Game 4 matchup.
Celtics’ coach Ime Udoka noted that big man Robert Williams’ knee is improving. After missing Game 3, there’s a chance Williams returns Monday. That’s important, as he’ll be tasked with slowing down Miami center Bam Adebayo, who had a massive 31-point, 10-rebound, 6-assist performance Saturday.
Bouncing back from a loss is nothing new for the Celtics, as they are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games following a defeat. Perrault believes Boston will notch a victory in front of its home crow on Monday, and win the game running away to cover this number.
You can find the Celtics -6.5 at BetMGM.
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NBA Prop: Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)
The prop: Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 points
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Monday
Tatum is coming off an embarrassing performance in his last outing. He finished with just 10 points on 3 of 14 shooting, and he actually had more turnovers than points in the second half. The Celtics nearly were able to overcome a massive second-half deficit, but 13 combined turnovers from Tatum and Jaylen Brown killed that dream.
I still think Tatum is a full-fledged superstar, but some people will point to those random clunkers as his last remaining flaw. A star player needs to show up in every postseason contest, and Tatum hasn’t hit that threshold yet.
Fortunately, that does create some value in the Heat vs Celtics props market. Tatum has a tendency to bounce back following a down performance. He now has three performances with less than 20 points during the postseason; he’s scored at least 30 points in the following contest in the previous two. Expect him to make it 3-for-3 on Monday.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: Kyle Lowry (Miami Heat)
The bet: Over 5.5 assists
The odds: +110
Where to bet: PointsBet USA
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep Prop of the Day has hit four straight for this Best Bets series! Looking to make it five in a row, the crew is taking Miami guard Kyle Lowry Over 5.5 assists for Game 4 at Boston.
The rationale for this Best Bets play:
- In his last two games, Lowry has recorded 7 and 6 assists, respectively,
- In three games against the Celtics this season, Lowry has averaged 6.3 assists.
- Lowry has recorded six-plus assists in 31 of his last 50 games, good for a 62 percent hit rate.
Lowry went Over 5.5 assists in Game 3 at Boston (six total dimes). There’s a chance he picks up more minutes on the court with Tyler Herro not playing Monday.
You can find Lowry Over 5.5 assists (+110) at PointsBet USA.
