When you think of Minnesota, the word “hot” rarely comes to mind. But the Twins certainly deserve that description right now as they’re riding a nine-game home winning streak heading into Tuesday’s game against the visiting Astros. On the other hand, Houston is no stranger to the heat (weather and baseball-wise). Sure enough, the Astros currently find themselves in the midst of a seven-game overall win streak.
Something’s gotta give in Tuesday’s highly-anticipated showdown of two top American League performers.
There’s a pretty good pitching matchup to boot: Justin Verlander, the two-time Cy Young winner and 17-year-veteran, will take the mound for Houston at Target Field opposite up-and-coming Twins rookie Joe Ryan.
Props.com breaks down Astros vs Twins odds for Tuesday’s opener of a three-game series in downtown Minneapolis.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 6:10 p.m. ET on May 10.
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Houston Astros (18-11) vs Minnesota Twins (18-11)
First pitch/TV: 7:40 p.m. ET/MLB.TV
Moneyline: Astros -140/Twins +120
Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+130)/Twins+1.5 (-150)
Total: 7 (Over +100/Under -120)
Pitching matchup: RHP Justin Verlander (3-1, 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP) vs RHP Joe Ryan (3-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.83 WHIP)
Season series: First meeting. Minnesota won the series 4-3 in 2021 thanks to taking three of four games at Houston in August.
Did you know: The visitor has dominated this series recently. Dating back to the 2020 playoffs, the road team is on a 7-2 run.
About the Astros
Hits & Misses: Houston arrives in Minnesota playing its best baseball of the season, winning seven straight and 11 of 13 dating to April 26. The Astros’ winning streak started with three home victories last week over the Mariners, decimating Seattle by a cumulative score of 14-2. Houston didn’t let up over the weekend against the Tigers, sweeping that four-game set as well. Scoring is down across MLB, and the Astros’ pitching staff certainly deserves some credit for that. Houston has not allowed more than two runs during its seven-game win streak. Naturally, the Astros have leaned heavily to the Under across that stretch (6-1). That’s part of the team’s 15-3 Under run that goes back to April 20.
Verlander vs Twins: Justin Verlander was on the shelf for nearly two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery. However, the 39-year-old righty hasn’t shown any signs of rust to begin the 2022 campaign. Across five starts, Verlander has allowed just seven earned runs in 32.2 innings (1.93 ERA) while piling up 31 strikeouts compared with four walks. His fastball is consistently hitting 95 mph on command, and the future Hall-of-Famer seems to be in prime shape just as his workload is ramping up. To wit: Verlander threw 91 and 101 pitches in his last two starts against Texas and Seattle, respectively.
Key injuries: 2B Aledmys Diaz (undisclosed injury) is probable for Tuesday.
About the Twins
Hits & Misses: Thanks in large part to its aforementioned nine-game home winning streak, Minnesota leads the AL Central by three games. The club also ranks fourth in MLB’s money standings (4.39 units). The Twins have done it despite an offense that has come and gone throughout the season. Over the weekend, Minnesota relied on its pitching to sweep Oakland in a three-game set, winning those games by scores of 2-1, 1-0, and 4-3. Making matters more concerning for the Twins’ offense: SS Carlos Correa and OF Byron Buxton — the team’s star hitters — are both dealing with injuries. Correa seems doubtful to play against his former club Tuesday while Buxton is still considered day-to-day. There is a chance Buxton returns Tuesday, as reports suggest he is looking to play at some point in this series vs. Houston.
Ryan vs Astros: Joe Ryan is a legitimate early-season candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. The 25-year-old righty was acquired from Tampa Bay in the middle of last season in a swap for aging DH Nelson Cruz. It’s safe to say that trade has gone swimmingly for the Twins, as they nabbed a reliable frontline starter with a bright future in exchange for a 41-year-old slugger who will soon meet “Father Time”. Through five starts covering 27.2 innings, Ryan has allowed just 16 hits and seven walks that have led to only five earned runs (1.63 ERA). Along the way, he’s recorded 28 strikeouts. Ryan has allowed two or fewer hits in three of his five outings. This will be his first meeting with the Astros.
Key injuries: Buxton (hip strain) is currently day-to-day, as is Correa (finger). As noted above, reports suggest Buxton is closer to returning than Correa. 1B Miguel Sano (knee), LF Kyle Garlick (calf), and LF Trevor Larnach (groin) also are out for the Twins.
Notable Trends
- HOU is 10-1 in its last 11 as a favorite
- MIN is 7-0 in its last seven vs. a right-handed pitcher
- MIN is 5-1 in last six as an underdog
- Under is 6-1 in HOU’s last seven road games
- Under is 13-2-2 in MIN’s last 17 vs. the AL West
- HOU is 4-1 in its last five games at the Twins
- Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine series meetings
Astros vs Twins Odds and Action
UPDATE 6:10 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Houston hit DraftKings’ MLB odds board as a -135 road favorite a little more than 24 hours ago. The moneyline toggled between -135 and -145, but is currently sitting at Astros -140/Twins +120. As of about an hour ago, the money was split right down the middle at DraftKings, but 78% of the tickets were on Houston.
The total opened at 6.5 flat and has since been back and forth between 6.5 and 7, with juice changes along the way. DraftKings currently has the number at 7/Under -120 amid betting splits of 64% of the bets and 69% of the cash on the Under.
