The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props. We have another pair of massive contests to choose from on Monday, starting with the Celtics vs. the Bucks at 7 p.m. ET. Milwaukee was able to grab a 2-1 series lead with a win in Game 3, and they’ll be looking to grab full control of the series on their home court in Game 4.
The nightcap features Game 4 between the Grizzlies and the Warriors. Golden State throttled the Grizzlies in Game 3, and the Grizzlies are dealing with a few notable injuries. Can they pull off an upset on the road or will they be facing elimination heading back to Memphis for Game 5? Who will pick up the slack for Memphis? How does that translate to the NBA props market?
Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top NBA props from Monday’s two-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12 p.m. ET on May 9.
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Bucks vs Celtics Player Props
Milwaukee Bucks: C Brook Lopez
The prop: 5.5 rebounds (at Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -160/Under +120
The Bucks secured a 2-1 series lead over the Celtics with their win on Saturday, and they’ll have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead on their home court on Monday. Lopez was instrumental in their last contest, finishing with 13 points, 10 boards, two assists, and two steals over 29.3 minutes. The Bucks outscored the Celtics by five points with Lopez on the floor, which was the second-highest mark on the squad.
Lopez has done solid work on the glass in general in this series. He has 10 boards in two of three contests, and he grabbed six boards in the other.
However, Lopez is not known for his rebounding prowess. He averaged just 4.1 rebounds per game during the regular season, and he finished with five rebounds or fewer in all five playoff contests vs. the Bulls. Overall, his rebound prop has become a bit inflated, so there’s some value to be had with the under on Monday. I like it at anything better than even money.
Boston Celtics: SG Derrick White
The prop: 1.5 assists (at Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
White was the Celtics’ big addition at the trade deadline, and so far, it has been a disaster. He hasn’t given the Celtics nearly the same kind of production that he gave the Spurs, and he’s averaged 6.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game during the postseason.
Still, White is expected to see a solid handful of minutes off the bench on Monday. He played 20.6 minutes in Game 3, and that should be enough for him to hit the over on his assist prop. Even during his disappointing Celtics tenure, he still averaged 3.5 assists over 27.4 minutes per game during the regular season.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Player Props
Memphis Grizzlies: SG Dillon Brooks
The prop: 17.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -125/Under +100
The big news in this series involves the injury to Ja Morant. He suffered a knee injury during Game 3, and he later accused Jordan Poole of “breaking the code.” This was in response to Steve Kerr saying Dillon Brooks “broke the code” with his dirty foul against Gary Payton II during Game 2. I personally didn’t see anything wrong with what Poole did, but there is clearly some animosity building between these two squads.
Unfortunately, Morant is not expected to suit up in Monday’s Game 4. That’s a big blow for the Grizzlies, but it’s not exactly a death knell. The Grizzlies went 20-5 without Morant during the regular season, and they were 20-2 before losing three straight meaningless games to end the year. That’s not an outlier either: The Grizzlies Net Rating has been better with Morant off the floor all year.
If he does sit, the rest of the roster will be asked to pick up the scoring load. Brooks figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate to 30.1% with Morant off the floor this season, which trails only Jaren Jackson Jr.’s mark of 30.4%. Overall, he averaged 24.1 points per 36 minutes in that scenario.
Additionally, Desmond Bane is also a bit banged up at the moment. He hasn’t looked like himself in each of the first three games of this series, posting a usage rate of 17.9% or less in all three contests. With that in mind, Brooks could be looking at a monster workload on Monday. This is one of my favorite NBA props of the day.
Golden State Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins
The prop: 1.5 made 3-pointers (vs. Memphis)
The odds: Over +135/Under -175
Wiggins wasn’t really needed in Game 3, with the Warriors cruising to an easy 30-point victory at home. He was limited to just 25.7 minutes, but Wiggins still finished with 17 points on excellent shooting efficiency. He was a perfect 2-2 from 3-point point range, and he made multiple 3-pointers for the first time in his past five outings.
While I’m not expecting another perfect 100% shooting night from behind the arc, the over on 1.5 made 3-pointers for Wiggins has appeal. He averaged 2.2 3-pointers per game during the regular season while making a career-best 39.3% of his attempts. Overall, he knocked down at least two triples in 51 of 73 regular season contests, so +135 on the over represents a tremendous value.
