Canelo Alvarez must have so loved beating the brakes off Sergei Kovalev that he just had to get back to the light heavyweight division.
The Ring magazine’s pound-for-pound No. 1 has been at super middleweight his last four fights. But on Saturday in Las Vegas, boxing’s biggest draw steps back up to the 175-pound weight class to take on Dmitrii Bivol for the WBA light heavyweight strap. It will be just the second fight for Alvarez at that limit.
Props.com caught up with Circa Sports oddsmaker Nick Kalikas to discuss Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitrii Bivol odds and action ahead of Saturday’s bout.
Odds via Circa Sports and updated as of 10 p.m. ET on May 5.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitrii Bivol Odds
Some 72 hours before the first punch is thrown, Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) is a -500 favorite to deal Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) his first professional loss. Makes sense, seeing that Canelo is the known quantity for most, with hands of stone, a chin of rock, and steak of … well, don’t ask about the steak.
Bivol, a 31-year-old priced at +395, is lightly seasoned, though he has some decent scalps on his résumé. Among his victims: Joe Smith Jr, Jean Pascal and Sullivan Barrera.
Alvarez hasn’t fought since knocking out Caleb Plant on Nov. 6 in a super middleweight title unification bout in Las Vegas. On Saturday, he’ll give up four inches to his 6-foot Russian foe. He also gives up an inch and a half of reach. Not that those tale-of-the-tape disadvantages are scaring off bettors from flocking to possibly the best boxer on the planet.
“As far as the public perception goes, Bivol is more of an unknown, and Canelo Alvarez is one of the sport’s biggest draws,” Kalikas said. “Blind bets are going to come in on Canelo. Especially at this price, because it’s not ridiculous, as far as boxing goes. The public’s not going to hesitate to lay that chalk.”
If blind-betting on Alvarez is the play, the public has picked the right time to do it. This is the shortest price on Canelo since he went off at -550 against Danny Jacobs in May 2019.
Kalikas hasn’t taken any sharp action at Circa yet. However, when Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitrii Bivol odds first opened at Alvarez -400/Bivol +325, he had over-the-counter customers request to bet Canelo above the limits. Kalikas raised the price on Alvarez to -485 on that action.
About 75-80 percent of the early money is on the superstar, with parlays from every sport tied to Alvarez. Everyone wants a few more nickels on their other plays.
“We desperately need some Bivol action, but I think we will get some. I would expect a few max bets to come in on the Bivol side [on fight day] — maybe from some sharper bettors because the price seems to be a little overinflated,” Kalikas said. “It‘s [probably] a ‘dog-or-pass situation to a lot of sharp bettors.
“We’re going to be Bivol fans, for sure.”