Tuesday’s Best Bets went 1-for-3, thanks to Boston blowing out Milwaukee, which ended up spoiling our player props worse than expired milk.
It’s OK, though. We’ve rinsed that sour taste out of our mouths. The fridge is clean, and we checked the expiration dates to make sure no spoilage makes it into Wednesday’s Best Bets.
So let’s break the seal on this fresh batch of Best Bets, all of which stem from the NBA playoffs.
Best Bets Track Record
Tuesday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 74-67-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 21-22-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-27
NBA Props: 26-12
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Side: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
The bet: Suns -6 (vs. Dallas)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast rejoined the winner’s circle on Tuesday, as the Bucks vs. Celtics total fell short of 215.5 points. That’s now a cool 4-1 mark for Perrault across the last five Best Bets articles.
Today, Perrault is staying in the NBA playoffs. He’s betting the Suns -6 against the Mavericks in Game 2 of that series. The logic behind that pick is pretty straightforward, as Phoenix has had Dallas’ number all season. Here are the results from those four meetings:
- Suns win by 7 on Nov. 17
- Suns by 8 on Nov. 19
- Suns by 8 on Jan. 20
- Suns by 7 on May 2 (Game 1)
Do you see a theme here? Yes, the Suns have won each contest by at least seven points, and Perrault is banking on Phoenix achieving that feat once again.
The podcast host points out that this is a bad matchup for Dallas. Deandre Ayton will continue to serve as a nice complement for the Suns, after posting 25 points and eight rebounds in Game 1. Of course, Devin Booker and Chris Paul will continue to carry their weight, but Ayton is the X-factor in this game.
You can find the Suns -6 at Caesars Sportsbook.
NBA Prop: F Tobias Harris (Philadelphia 76ers)
The bet: Over 2.5 assists (at Miami)
The odds: -144
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach via NBA Props Wednesday
This line seems way too low, and we aren’t overthinking it.
Harris averaged 3.5 assists per game in the regular season, a full dime above this prop. So what gives? That’s an excellent question that we can’t seem to answer, as Harris’ assist numbers only get better the deeper we dive.
In four games against Miami this season, Harris is averaging 3.7 assists per contest — which is marginally better than his baseline. Like most key players, his minutes have increased in the playoffs, as well. In fact, Harris saw 44-plus minutes twice in the first-round series against Toronto. If Wednesday’s game is close, there’s a chance Harris creeps into the 40- to 45-minute range. From here, the formula is pretty simple: more playing time = more chances for assists.
With Joel Embiid sidelined, the ball will be in Harris’ hands more often. How about we quantify that statement? Harris has a 21.7 percent usage rate when Embiid plays. That jumps to 28.5 percent in games without Embiid.
Needless to say, there’s value in taking Harris Over 2.5 assists in Game 2.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: G Spencer Dinwiddie (Dallas Mavericks)
The bet: Over 2.5 assists (at Phoenix)
The odds: -130
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep Prop of the Day comes from Game 2 between the Suns and Mavericks, with BetPrep taking Dallas guard Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists. The rationale for this player prop:
- Dinwiddie has recorded three-plus assists in five of seven playoff games.
- Since joining the Mavericks, Dinwiddie is averaging 3.9 assists across 23 games.
- Dinwiddie has gone Over 2.5 assists in 12 of 17 contests dating to March 21.
Some of those numbers are inflated, with Dinwiddie taking on more of a distribution role when Luka Doncic missed three postseason games. However, Dinwiddie came through with four assists in Game 1 at Phoenix (alongside Doncic), and a similar story could play out on Wednesday.
You can find Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists (-135) at BetMGM.
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