Monday’s Best Bets went 1-for-3 — not exactly ideal, but we’re still 11-7 since the beginning of last week. We also remain above the “gambling Mendoza line,” hitting 52.9 percent of our Best Bets overall. (Obviously, we’re not spending our free time shopping for yachts just yet, but hey, we’ll take it!)
While the NHL playoffs are in full swing, our attention is still on the second round of the NBA’s postseason, at least as it pertains to Tuesday’s Best Bets.
One game in particular stands out: Celtics vs. Bucks — aka the battle for green jersey bragging rights.
Speaking of the color of money, let’s go ahead and harvest more “green” out of that series with three Best Bets for Tuesday’s Game 2 matchup.
Best Bets Track Record
Monday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 73-65-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 20-22-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-26
NBA Props: 26-11
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Total: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
The bet: Celtics-Bucks Under 215.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast saw his three-day winning streak crumble when Dallas (+6) failed to cover at Phoenix on Monday. Undaunted, he’s sticking with the Association, but this time shifting his focus to the total in Game 2 of the series between the defending champion Bucks and Perrault’s beloved Celtics.
Perrault is banking yet another low-scoring battle between Milwaukee and Boston, rolling with Under 215.5 total points. Two logical reasons for this Best Bet:
- Milwaukee has stayed Under the total in all six playoff games
- Game 1 between Boston and Milwaukee missed the 218-point mark by 28 points (101-89 final)
Perrault expects Milwaukee to cap out at roughly the same point total it produced in Game 1. That would mean Boston would have to put up 110-115 points to send this game Over the total — which Perrault believes is beyond the Celtics’ reach against a tough Bucks defense.
You can find the Celtics-Bucks total at 215.5 on most major sportsbooks, including BetMGM.
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NBA Prop: C Brook Lopez (Milwaukee Bucks)
The bet: Over 10.5 points (at Boston)
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Tuesday
Lopez was basically a non-factor for the Bucks during the regular season, with injuries limiting him to just 13 games played. However, he’s taken on a much larger role during the playoffs. The veteran big man has started all six of Milwaukee’s postseason contests, and he’s averaged 12.0 points over 28.7 minutes per game.
Lopez also should once again benefit from the continued absence of Khris Middleton. For starters, his playing time is much more secure with Middleton out of the rotation. Instead of having to share minutes with Bobby Portis, both players will occasionally be on the court at the same time. Lopez has also seen a slight usage bump with Middleton off the floor, so he should get a few additional shot attempts as well.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: G/F Grayson Allen (Milwaukee Bucks)
The bet: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (at Boston)
The odds: +120
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep Prop of the Day is a Celtics vs Bucks player prop as well. Grayson Allen is the subject of this offering, with BetPrep taking the much-despised former Duke star to go Over 2.5 made 3-pointers in Game 2 at Boston.
The folks at BetPrep note that Allen has gone beaten this prop number in 14 of 17 games with Middleton sidelined, which will be the case on Tuesday. Expanding on that, Allen has made three-plus from behind the arc in all four playoff games Middleton missed. Here are the 3-point results:
- 5-of-7 (April 22 vs Chicago)
- 6-of-7 (April 24 vs Chicago)
- 3-of-6 (Wednesday vs Chicago)
- 3-of-6 (Sunday vs Boston)
It’s clear that the extended playing time (in Middleton’s absence) is serving Allen well. To wit: The Milwaukee wing player has seen 25-30 minutes routinely across the last four games. And he should continue to see open shots with teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo drawing defenders to the rim.
You can find Allen Over 2.5 made 3-pointers at +120 at Caesars Sportsbook.
