Tuesday NBA Props: Is Jaren Jackson Jr Due For Regression?

Jaren Jackson Jr. looks on against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on January 21, 2022 in Denver, Colorado.
Image Credit: Ethan Mito/Clarkson Creative/Getty Images

The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props. The second round of the postseason started on Sunday, and we have a pair of Game 2 matchups on tap for Tuesday. The action gets underway with the Bucks vs Celtics at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with a nightcap between the Warriors and Grizzlies.

Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top NBA props from Tuesday’s two-game slate.

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12 p.m. ET on May 3.

Celtics vs Bucks Player Props

Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics reacts after hitting a three-point shot during a game against the Milwaukee Bucks at TD Garden on December 13, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts.
Image Credit: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

Boston Celtics: F Jayson Tatum

The prop: 6.5 rebounds (vs. Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

The Celtics dropped Game 1 vs. the Bucks, making Game 2 a virtual must-win. Falling behind in a series 0-2 is extremely difficult to come back from, especially with the matchup heading to Milwaukee in Game 3. Luckily, it’s hard to imagine the Celtics playing much worse than they did on Sunday, where the team managed just 89 points on a paltry 33.3 percent shooting.

Tatum has been the Celtics’ catalyst all year, and I’m expecting a much better outing from him in Game 2. His rebounding numbers have been down a bit during the postseason, but he averaged 8.0 rebounds per game during the regular season. He did that in just 35.9 minutes per game, and he’s averaged 41.3 minutes per game during the playoffs. There’s no reason he should average fewer rebounds in more playing time, so this feels like a nice buy-low opportunity.

Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our full NBA Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed. 

Brook Lopez #11 of the Milwaukee Bucks goes up for a shot on Dwight Powell #7 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first half of a game at Fiserv Forum on April 03, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Image Credit: John Fisher/Getty Images

Milwaukee Bucks: C Brook Lopez

The prop: 10.5 points (at Boston)
The odds: Over -125/Under +100

Lopez was basically a non-factor for the Bucks during the regular season, with injuries limiting him to just 13 games played. However, he’s taken on a much larger role during the playoffs. He’s started all six of their postseason contests, and he’s averaged 12.0 points over 28.7 minutes per game.

Lopez should also benefit from the continued absence of Khris Middleton. For starters, his playing time is much more secure with Middleton out of the rotation. Instead of having to share minutes with Bobby Portis, both players will occasionally be on the court at the same time. Lopez has also seen a slight usage bump with Middleton off the floor, so he should see a few additional shot attempts as well.

Grizzlies vs Warriors Player Props

Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 of the Memphis Grizzlies reacts against the Minnesota Timberwolves during Game Two of the Western Conference First Round at FedExForum on April 19, 2022 in Memphis, Tennessee.
Image Credit: Justin Ford/Getty Images

Memphis Grizzlies: PF Jaren Jackson Jr.

The prop: 22.5 points + rebounds (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -110/Under -120

Jackson is one of the most frustrating players in the league. He’s one of the most talented young big men in basketball, and he has the ability to dominate games on both ends of the floor. He’s racked up seven blocks in Game 1 vs. the Timberwolves, and he made six 3-pointers in Game 1 vs. the Warriors. The list of players who can do both of those things is minuscule.

Unfortunately, Jackson just can’t seem to stay on the floor. He has a tendency to foul everything that moves, which often limits his playing time. He’s racked up 26.9 minutes or fewer in five of his first seven playoff contests, and it’s tough to provide value when you’re sitting on the bench. He has managed to stay out of foul trouble in each of his past two games, but I have zero confidence that he’ll do it again on Tuesday.

Ultimately, I’m willing to bet on some regression for Triple J in Game 2.

Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after scoring on a three-point shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second quarter at Chase Center on January 09, 2022 in San Francisco, California.
Image Credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Golden State Warriors: SG Klay Thompson

The prop: 3.5 rebounds (vs. Memphis)
The odds: Over -135/Under +100

Thompson struggled to get things going in his last contest, finishing just 6-19 from the field and 3-10 from 3-point range. However, he delivered when it counted:

For Game 2, I’m honing in on the over for Thompson’s rebounding prop. It’s set at a modest 3.5, and he should be able to hit the over on that number. He averaged 3.9 rebounds per game during the regular season, and he has at least four boards in two of his past three games. His rebounding numbers also get a significant boost when the Warriors go with their hyper-small lineup – Thompson, Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green – and I expect to see that lineup a bunch for the remainder of the playoffs.