We get it. Feb. 13 was so long ago. It’s been 2.5 months without the NFL. And we’ve got another four-plus months until the 2022 regular season kicks off. Thankfully, though, NFL Draft odds are on the board for the next three days, so we’ve got that going for us.
Which is nice.
Thursday night brings us the first round, far and away the most popular in NFL Draft betting markets. Who’s going No. 1? How many quarterbacks will be selected within the first 32 picks? Which Draft position props are seeing action?
With just a few hours until the Jacksonville Jaguars are officially on the clock, Props.com’s extensive NFL Draft odds coverage takes a look at popular prop bets, with insights from BetMGM.
Odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on April 28.
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No. 1 Overall Pick
This has been a huge mover — not just in the past few days, but in the months since BetMGM first opened NFL Draft odds last August. A week ago, most books had Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson a favorite in the range of -150 to -200 to go No. 1 to Jacksonville. As of today, Hutchinson has flipped all the way to +400 at BetMGM, making him the co-second choice with North Carolina State offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu.
And here’s hoping that you wagered early on the new favorite, Georgia defensive end Travon Walker. In August, Walker was a +3000 long shot to go No. 1. Now, he’s the prohibitive -450 favorite to be the first player NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announces from the NFL Draft stage in Las Vegas.
Walker is No. 2 in ticket count, well behind Hutchinson. However, Walker is No. 1 in money — and again, some of that cash is at longer odds. As such, the Bulldogs standout is BetMGM’s top liability in the No. 1 overall pick market.
After Walker, Hutchinson and Ekwonu, odds stretch to +2000 for Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal, the fourth choice on the board.
No. 2 Overall Pick
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This market got more interesting over the the past week after Hutchinson fell from being favored to go No. 1 overall. Hutchinson opened a +250 underdog to be drafted second, because oddsmakers and experts expected him to be go first. Now, the Michigan star is -175 to go No. 2 overall, followed by Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux at +110. Those who got in early on this prop could’ve had Thibodeaux at +1000 to be selected by the Detroit Lions, who hold the second pick.
Walker is the third choice at +1200, but as noted above, he’s expected to go No. 1.
Hutchinson is taking 28% of tickets in this market, while Thibodeaux is drawing 23% of bets. But the money is heavily in Hutchinson’s favor, with 51% of cash on the No. 2 overall pick going to the Wolverines defensive end. Thibodeaux is getting 21% of money, and no one else is in double digits.
No. 3 Overall Pick
This is where things get really interesting in the NFL Draft odds market. No player is minus money at BetMGM, and the top seven players are clustered between +150 and +800.
The thought is that the Houston Texans want a defensive back, and two of them are in the mix. LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. is the +100 favorite at BetMGM after opening +750. Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner is the +400 co-third choice, along with the aforementioned Hutchinson, should the defensive end not go first or second.
N.C. State’s Ekwonu slots between Stingley and Gardner/Hutchinson as the +210 second choice.
If you follow the money, Stingley is clearly the play here. He’s No. 1 in ticket count, netting 22% of bets in this market, which is by no means overwhelming. But that 22% of wagers is translating into 61% of money. No other player is even landing 10% of money. The next-closest is Ekwonu at 9.5%, and he’s taking 15% of tickets to go No. 3 overall.
Quarterback Prop Bets
The prop of which QB comes off the board first is always popular. Liberty’s Malik Willis is now the -200 favorite, followed by Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett at +150. Then there’s a significant drop-off to Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder at +1200.
Willis and Pickett are both expected to be gone by the 20th pick or so. Ridder and North Carolina’s Sam Howell might sneak into the first round. But will any other QBs get onstage Thursday night, or will they have to wait until Friday?
BetMGM’s Over/Under prop on how many QBs will go in the first round is set at 3.5, and oddsmakers clearly don’t expect anyone beyond those three to be selected. And it just might just be Willis and Pickett in the first round.
Over 3.5 QBs in the first round is a now a +300 underdog, while Under 3.5 is a healthy -450 favorite. Further, ticket count is 2/1 on the Under, and practically all the money is on the Under.
Speaking of Pickett, his stock has been declining in the days leading up to the Draft. BetMGM’s Over/Under Draft position prop on the Pitt QB opened at 12.5, and it’s now down to 15.5. The Over — meaning he’ll be taken later than 15.5 — is a -250 favorite, while the Under is +185. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 9/1-plus on the Over.
More NFL Draft Prop Bets
Oddsmakers expect even fewer running backs than QBs to go in the first round — if any are taken at all. CBSSports.com’s latest mock draft doesn’t have a single running back going among the first 32 picks. Correspondingly, BetMGM’s Over/Under on number of running backs selected in the first round is 0.5.
Under is a -225 favorite, while Over is +160. The Over is getting 66% of bets, and the Under is drawing 59% of money.
BetMGM expects a big run on offensive linemen Thursday night, as the position has the highest first-round Over/Under number. That number is set at 7.5, with the Under at -260 and the Over at +180. Ticket count is 4/1 and money beyond 9/1 on the Under.
Other popular props at BetMGM:
— First wide receiver taken: Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson is the -175 chalk, followed by Alabama’s Jameson Williams (+225) and USC’s Drake London (+250).
— Thibodeaux Over/Under Draft position: The Oregon star’s Draft position opened and remains 4.5, currently priced at Under -135/Over +105.
