Wednesday NBA Props: Injuries Boost Betting Value For Bucks-Bulls

The NBA playoffs are in full swing, with another two games on tap Wednesday — which means two more games from which to mine some NBA props, with the action getting underway at 7:30 p.m. ET.

While the stakes have changed for the teams on the court, the goal from our perspective has not: help you make money. Throughout the playoffs, Props.com will present our top NBA props selections from the day’s action, then do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.

With that, let’s dive into our favorite NBA props from Wednesday’s two-game slate.

Bucks vs Bulls Player Props

Chicago Bulls: F Patrick Williams

The prop: 11.5 points (at Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -105/Under -110

Chicago guard Zach LaVine has entered the dreaded health and safety protocols, and thus will not play in Game 5. That’s sent sportsbooks scrambling to adjust their prop numbers accordingly. BetMGM rolled out Patrick Williams’ points prop at 11.5, which is higher than it would be if LaVine was playing — but not high enough.

Here’s why:

• Williams played two games without LaVine this season. He scored 18 and 35 points, respectively, in those contests.
• The Bulls’ forward has posted 12-plus points in six of his last nine games overall.
• Williams has played between 30-33 minutes in his last three games, and that could increase slightly with LaVine out.

Throw in some reduced juice, and this prop looks like a bargain. Go ahead and grab this number at BetMGM before it changes.

Milwaukee Bucks: C Brook Lopez

The prop: 13.5 points (vs. Chicago)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115

Lopez didn’t have to do much for the Bucks in the last two games — which is a good thing, because he did very little. The veteran center scored nine points in 25 minutes in Game 3, then put up a whopping two points and 22 minutes in Game 4.

So we’re rolling Under here, right? Nope. Because Game 5 back home in Milwaukee presents an interesting bounce-back spot for Lopez, whose poor performances in Chicago are directly tied to apathy in blowout situations. That shouldn’t be the case tonight, as the Bulls will likely put up at least somewhat of a fight — like, stay within 10-15 points — while facing elimination.

The formula here is pretty simple: If the game is reasonably competitive through four quarters, Lopez should fly past this total. If we ignore those blowouts in Games 3 and 4, Lopez has accounted for 14-plus points in six straight games. That includes point totals of 28, 18, and 25 against Chicago.

Remember, Khris Middleton is out for Milwaukee. Bobby Portis has stepped up in his absence, but some of those opportunities Middleton normally would have could find their way to Lopez in a more competitive game.

Warriors vs Nuggets Player Props

Denver Nuggets: F Aaron Gordon 

The prop: 14.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115

Nikola Jokic needs help. That’s not a controversial statement, as the likely MVP has been pulling his weight only to see his team fall behind 3-1 in its best-of-7 first-round series against Golden State. The Nuggets’ season is on the line Wednesday night, and they’ll need someone else to take on more of a scoring role to stay in contention.

Gordon’s aggressiveness in Game 4 helped Denver fend off elimination, and the former lottery pick will be asked to keep his foot on the gas pedal in Game 5 at Golden State. Gordon had 25 points across 35 minutes Sunday, chipping in 10-of-13 free throws along the way. With that performance, “AG” has produced 15-plus points in 10 of his last 13 outings, which now includes two straight games in this series.

With Denver’s back against the wall, expect Gordon to see plenty of minutes, expect him to remain aggressive, and expect him to deliver at least 15 points.

Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic

The prop: 1.5 steals (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -120/Under -110

This prop seems risky at first blush. After all, steals are completely random, right? Correct, but minutes and the overall activity level that goes into peripheral stats like steals aren’t random. You don’t need me to tell you that Jokic plays a ton of minutes or that his motor doesn’t have an off switch.

The reigning (and probable repeat) MVP is seemingly in on every play, and the Nuggets will ask their superstar to flirt — and probably surpass — 40 minutes of court time in an effort to escape elimination. Furthermore, Jokic has recorded two or more steals in 10 of his last 13 games.

Now combine those two statements. Jokic could see a 20 percent increase in playing time compared with his season average of 34.5 minutes per game. And he’s had a penchant for multiple steals of late. So the heightened minutes certainly don’t hurt the Over for this prop.