Now that Week 1 is in the rearview, the exciting part of NFL betting begins to take shape: new trends.
Before last week, we were working on data from last season and historical trends. This week we have available data for the season, albeit in a small sample size.
Despite just one week’s worth of takeaways, it’s enough to shape our first props angle of the week: loading up on Broncos player props against the Jaguars.
Why Target Denver
We’re not so much targeting the Denver offense here, though they did look good putting up 27 points on a respectable Giants defense. No, this is purely a target against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense, which was dreadful in Week 1.
The Jaguars allowed 37 points to a Houston Texans offense that is widely expected to be one of the worst in the NFL this season.
The points didn’t make me change my tune on that Texans projection but instead realize one thing: this Jacksonville defense is atrocious.
They allowed 449 total yards, fourth-most in Week 1, and allowed Houston to convert 57.14% of third downs, again the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Which Broncos Props To Target
Jacksonville was far more generous to the passing game, so we’ll devote our attention to the Broncos’ aerial attack.
Despite an injury to second-year receiver Jerry Jeudy that will keep him out for around two months, there are enough weapons on this Denver offense to feel good about their chances.
We start with receiver KJ Hamler, who saw four targets in Week 1 and serves as more of a deep threat in this offense.
I specify the big-play ability here because of the big game Brandin Cooks had against this defense last week, finishing with 132 yards on just five catches (26.4 average).
Early lines on Hamler’s total receiving yards look to be at around 41.5 yards, a great target.
Hamler had 41 yards last week, and now Jeudy’s seven targets leave the offensive game plan.
Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton also figure to be of value when considering props. Sutton was quiet in Week 1 but figures to be the top receiver for the next few weeks.
Fant is an athletic tight end that led the team in targets last week and finished with 62 receiving yards.
Sutton’s Week 2 over is currently 62.5 yards, while Fant’s is listed at 57.5.
I don’t think you can go wrong with any of Denver’s pass-catchers; these are my favorite props of the weekend.
Final Word
The Jaguars had one of the worst pass defenses last season, 26th on DVOA and 31st on Pro Football Focus.
It seems they’re continuing right where they left off, unfortunately for them. While I urge everyone not to put too much stock into Week 1 data, this is an example of confirmation from a full season’s worth of information.
Best of luck to those that load them up some Broncos for Sunday. For more NFL betting content, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.