Thursday NBA Props: Is Paul George Due For Regression?

Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George (13) during the game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center.
Image Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing players and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.

Props.com compared the top platforms to find that DraftKings Sportsbook has the most robust offerings for NBA Props. They also have a generous welcome offer for new members (see below).

With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Tuesday’s five-game slate.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 31. 

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Detroit Pistons: PF Marvin Bagley

Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Detroit Pistons looks on against the Washington Wizards during the first half at Capital One Arena on February 14, 2022 in Washington, DC.
Image Credit: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The prop: 7.5 rebounds (vs. Philadelphia)
The odds: Over +110/Under -115

Bagley will live in infamy as the player selected before Luka Doncic and Trae Young in the 2018 NBA Draft, making him this generation’s version of Sam Bowie. That’s has given Bagley the unfortunate label of a bust. But while the former Duke star hasn’t lived up to expectations based on his draft position, he’s not a bad player.

Bagley has received new life following a midseason trade to the Pistons. Detroit isn’t a place where you typically want to play basketball, but it’s an oasis compared with Sacramento. Bagley has taken full advantage of his new situation, averaging 14.9 points and 6.8 boards in 17 contests while shooting 56 percent from the field. He’s also drawn seven starts with the Pistons — including each of the past two games — averaging 8.14 rebounds in those contests.

His worst outing on the glass as a Pistons’ starter came last time out (March 29 at Brooklyn), when he was limited to just five boards over 23.6 minutes. Bagley struggled with foul trouble in that contest. If he avoids the whistle Thursday, he’s expected to return to somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 minutes versus the 76ers. That makes this an excellent buy-low opportunity.

Unfortunately, Bagley’s rebounding prop is currently available on Underdog, but you can still grab the Over on 22.5 points + rebounds. It’s not quite as appealing as the straight rebound prop, but it’s still worth a wager.

Otherwise, give me Bagley Over 7.5 boards at plus-money on DraftKings.

Brooklyn Nets: C Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond #4 of the Brooklyn Nets walks off the court during the second half against the Washington Wizards at Barclays Center on February 17, 2022 in New York City. Wizards won 117-103.
Image Credit: Adam Hunger/Getty Images

The prop: 10.5 rebounds (vs. Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -110/Under -110

Is Drummond a good basketball player? Probably not. Is he the Nets’ best option at center? Absolutely.

Drummond has actually turned out to be the Nets’ most impactful contributor from the Harden trade, with Ben Simmons yet to suit up and Seth Curry in and out of the lineup due to injuries. He’s started all 18 games since arriving in Brooklyn, and his playing time has been trending upwards.

Drummond has logged at least 27.7 minutes in three of his past four games, and he is still one of the best rebounders in the league. His 25.8% rebound rate would be the top mark in the league this season if he played enough minutes to qualify. Drummond has pulled down at least 11 boards in three straight games, and he should continue to rack up boards with 28+ minutes.

I’m leaning Over 10.5 rebounds in a competitive draw with the Bucks on Thursday.

Cleveland Cavaliers: SG Isaac Okoro

Isaac Okoro #35 of the Cleveland Cavaliers reacts to a three point basket during the first half against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center on February 02, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
Image Credit: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

The prop: 12.5 points + rebounds (at Atlanta)
The odds: Over -115/Under -120

Things continue to go from bad to worse for the Cavaliers from an injury perspective. They lost Collin Sexton to an injury earlier this year, and now Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are sidelined. Even role players like Dean Wade and Rajon Rondo have been sidelined recently.

Ultimately, the Cavs have slid all the way down to seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings, setting up a potential play-in tournament matchup vs. the Nets. That puts them in serious jeopardy of not qualifying for the postseason.

With all their injuries, Okoro is going to have to do a bit more than usual for the Cavs on Thursday. He’s a low-impact player – he’s averaged 9.0 points and 3.1 rebounds per game this season – but he should see plenty of minutes vs. the Hawks. He’s also seen a slight boost in production with Sexton, Mobley, and Allen off the floor, resulting in an average of 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.

I like the Over on such a reasonable number given the uptick in playing time and usage.

Los Angeles Clippers: SF Paul George

Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George reacts during a game
Image Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The prop: 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Chicago)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

George returned to the Clippers’ lineup following a three-month absence on Tuesday, and he looked as good as ever. He propelled the team to a massive comeback victory over the Jazz, which has been the Clippers’ specialty this season. George finished with 34 points, two boards, and six assists while shooting 50 percent from the field and 66.7 percent from 3-point range.

Still, he played just 30.8 minutes in that contest, and he will likely be limited again in just his second game following an extended absence.

George is likely due for some shooting regression in this matchup, and his 40.5 percent usage rate from his last game is unsustainable as well. That makes the under on his PRA prop an appealing option in the NBA prop betting market.

Los Angeles Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on November 19, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts.
Image Credit: Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images

The prop: 20.5 points (at Utah)
The odds: Over -115/Under -110

The Lakers haven’t just been bad recently, they’ve been a disaster. They suffered another massive defeat Tuesday at the hands of the Mavericks, and they’re going to be without LeBron James again vs. the Jazz on Thursday.

At this point, the Lakers are like a 17-car pileup on the highway: I don’t necessarily want to watch, but I also can’t look away. It doesn’t help that this team is on national TV every night for the rest of the year.

The one slight glimmer of hope for the Lakers is that Anthony Davis is nearing a return to the court. He’s been upgraded to questionable vs. the Jazz, and the Lakers desperately need him in the lineup. If he returns, it will ease the burden on Russell Westbrook.

Westbrook has done his best to keep the team afloat recently, averaging 21.8 points over his past seven games. However, his usage rate does decrease by -1.3% when sharing the court with Davis. Westbrook averages 17.8 points per 36 minutes in that situation, so the under has some value if “The Brow” is active.