Here we go with NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props for the East Region!
Cinderella No. 15 seed St. Peter’s will look to keep the magic alive against No. 3 Purdue at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Following that, No. 8 North Carolina will take the court against No. 4 UCLA in a nightcap featuring a pair of college basketball bluebloods.
Within that, Props.com breaks down four available NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props for both of Friday’s East Region contests.
Odds via DraftKings and BetMGM as of 3:45 p.m. ET on March 24.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: St. Peter’s Vs. Purdue
Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: Purdue -12.5/135.5
First-Half Moneyline
The prop: First-half moneyline
The odds: Purdue -375/St. Peter’s +290
To be honest, this game is difficult to handicap. Clearly, on paper, St. Peter’s is overmatched against the Boilermakers. But as Kentucky and Murray State know all too well, they don’t play March Madness games on paper. Both the second-seeded Wildcats and seventh-seeded Racers were sent packing by a Peacocks squad that became just third No. 15 seed to ever advance to the Sweet 16.
St. Peter’s has had a workweek to reflect on its crazy opening weekend and absorb the fact that it is two wins away from a Final Four bid. That can create a ton of pressure. It will be interesting to see if reality sets in for the Peacocks or if they’ll continue to play free and loose.
Most people are signing up for the former and looking toward an easy Purdue victory. However, the Boilermakers are currently -1,000 on the moneyline to win this game. They are nearly a third of that price (-375) to win the first half.
If you subscribe to the theory that St. Peter’s will come out with Sweet 16 jitters, then riding with Purdue -375 to win the first half gives you more bang for the buck.
Purdue Winning Margin
The prop: Purdue wins by 11-15 points
The odds: +320
As of Thursday afternoon, the spread in this game — the biggest of all eight Sweet 16 matchups — stands at Purdue -12.5. If you believe the Boilermakers’ margin of victory will hover around the number, this prop may interest you.
BetMGM is offering bettors the chance to pick a range of victory margins, with “Purdue wins by 11-15 points” at +320 odds. Well, if the oddsmakers’ line proves close to accurate, a victory of 11 to 15 points certainly is feasible.
Obviously, pegging a final score in a tight 4-point window isn’t easy (hence the juicy plus-money odds). But for what it’s worth, Purdue’s has been in range of the actual point spread quite a bit this postseason. In the Big Ten tournament, the Boilermakers beat Penn State by eight points as a 10.5-point favorite, and beat Michigan by five as a 6.5-point favorite. Then in the first two NCAA Tourney games, Purdue knocked off Yale by 22 as a 16.5-point chalk and Texas by 10 as a 3-point favorite.
Don’t like the 11-15 point margin? Consider these other ranges offered by BetMGM, all at big underdog prices:
- Purdue by 1-5: +475
- Purdue by 6-10: +325
- Purdue by 16-20: +375
Think St. Peter’s will pull off another shocker? Well, consider these margin-of-victory prop offerings:
- St. Peter’s by 1-5: +900
- St. Peter’s by 6-10: +1,600
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: North Carolina Vs. UCLA
Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: UCLA -2.5/142.5
Either Team: Winning Margin
The prop: Either Team To Win By 5 Or Less
The odds: +155
This should be an entertaining and competitive game between two historic basketball schools.
UCLA checks in as a slim 2.5-point favorite, a point spread that tells us the experts think this one could go either way.
If you share that mentality, add this prop to your “wagering watchlist” for Friday. Instead of rooting for one side or the other, you’re simply pulling for a close game that ends with a victory margin that doesn’t exceed five points.
The main risk with this prop obviously revolves around fouls and free throws. If one team holds a four-point lead with 10 seconds left, there’s a good chance the other side will foul — no matter how improbable the comeback scenario. Free-throw shooting then would come into play. That wouldn’t be ideal, considering both teams are solid from the charity stripe (UCLA connects at 74.2 percent, 90th in the nation; North Carolina ranks 19th at a tick under 77 percent).
Still, this should be a back-and-forth matchup between two evenly matched squads. As such, it’s more likely this one ends up being decided on the final possession than decided by double digits. Throw in some plus-money odds, and it’s a bet with moderate risk.
North Carolina Tar Heels: F Armando Bacot
The prop: 11.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
Bacot has been a beast for the Tar Heels all season. Piling up 15-plus boards has become commonplace for the 6-foot-10 junior, which is why this prop is north of double digits … and why there’s -130 juice attached to it.
Despite the marked-up price, the Over represents one of the stronger props of the night. Here’s why:
- Bacot averages 12.5 boards per game this season, a full rebound above this prop number
- UCLA ranks 51st in rebound rate this season, which rates near the bottom of Sweet 16 teams
- Bacot has posted 12-plus rebounds in six of his last nine games
Regarding that last point: The last three times Bacot fell short of 11.5 rebounds, the Tar Heels won in blowout fashion. Because of that, Bacot’s court time was limited. In fact, he played 28, 33 and 30 minutes in those contests, and finished with corresponding rebounding totals of 10, 11 and seven.
As we’ve already stated, this game should be extremely competitive from start to finish. If it is, and Bacot stays out of foul trouble, he’s going to be on the court for most (if not all) of the 40 minutes of game time. Well, Bacot has played at least 36 minutes in 12 games this season. Here are his rebounding totals in those contests: 16, 14, 18, 18, 15, 15, 22, 18, 22, 17, 13, 12.
Yep, Over 11.5 rebounds every time.
