Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing players and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Props.com compared the top platforms to find that DraftKings Sportsbook has the most robust offerings for Wednesday NBA Props. They also have a generous welcome offer for new members (see below).
With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Wednesday’s 11-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of noon ET on Mar. 23.
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Brooklyn Nets: PG Kyrie Irving
The prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (at Memphis)
The odds: Over -165/Under +130
The Nets are on the road tonight, so Irving will get to suit up. It’s quite possible the Nets’ point guard has a chip on his shoulder because of the ambiguous rules surrounding his playing status in Brooklyn’s Barclays Center. He can attend games (without a mask), but can’t play? Interesting.
That’s a different topic for a different day. For now, let’s focus on nailing down this NBA prop. Irving has seemingly used his frustration as fuel when he does get an opportunity to take the court. The former top overall pick has racked up 38-plus points in three of his last five outings. That includes a 60-point effort (tied for most in the NBA this season) in his most recent game (March 15 at Orlando).
You better believe Irving has been chucking up a whole lotta 3-pointers lately! Never one to turn down an open (or not) shot, Irving is seizing every opportunity when he actually gets to play. And he’s been delivering from deep, drilling 9, 5, and 8 treys over his past three games, respectively.
Irving’s 3-pointer prop stands at 2.5 at DrafKings. Sure, there’s -165 juice to the Over, but for good reason: “Uncle Drew” has glided past this number in 11 of his last 14 games. And he should get plenty of opportunities to fire away from long range in a what’s projected to be a high-scoring date with the Grizzlies. (The 238.5-point Over/Under is the highest among the 11 NBA games slated for Wednesday.)
Lay the price and roll with the Over.
Phoenix Suns: C Deandre Ayton
The prop: 17.5 points (at Minnesota)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
Ayton has picked up some of the scoring slack with Chris Paul sidelined for the Suns. Paul has missed 14 straight games with a thumb injury, and Ayton has accumulated 18-plus points in 10 of those contests. That’s a hit rate of 71 percent!
That right there is enough to consider playing the Over on this prop. However, here are a few more reasons to like this bet:
- Ayton’s opponent, Minnesota, ranks first in pace, meaning the Suns should have more possessions to work with than usual.
- In his only meeting with the Wolves this season (Nov. 15), Ayton posted 22 points. Mind you, CP3 was on the floor for that one (and had 22 points).
- Minnesota allows 22.7 points per game to centers this season. That’s ninth-most in the league.
- Minnesota ranks in the bottom 10 in rebound rate, which potentially means more put-backs (and easy points) for Ayton.
Add it all up, and you have one of the best NBA props on DraftKings’ board tonight, and at a reasonable -105 price.
Boston Celtics: C Al Horford
The prop: 6.5 rebounds (vs. Utah)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
The ageless Horford has racked up seven-plus rebounds in 30 of his last 50 games.
Despite that 60 percent hit rate, I’m leaning to the Under. Here’s why:
- Hoford has a tough matchup against Utah, which ranks second in the NBA in rebound rate — not surprising, since the NBA’s leading rebounder (Rudy Gobert) wears a Jazz jersey.
- Robert Williams is back for Boston tonight. Consequently, he will challenge Horford for minutes and rebounds.
Still not convinced? In his lone meeting with the Jazz this season (Dec. 3), Horford finishing with six rebounds, falling just short of this prop. He played 34 minutes in that contest, which is significantly more than his baseline of 24-26 minutes.
Needless to say, I have doubts that Horford can overcome the difficult matchup and find seven-plus rebounds while logging around 25 minutes. Take the Under, which again is priced with modest juice.
Dallas Mavericks: SG Reggie Bullock
The prop: 4.5 rebounds (vs. Houston)
The odds: Over -145/Under +110
No offense to Bullock, but he’s not exactly the rebounding type. Instead, he’s more of the hang-out-on-the-perimeter and wait for the ball to come to him kind of player.
Granted, Luka Doncic is out for the Mavericks on Wednesday, which leaves 9.1 rebounds for someone to scoop up. I just don’t believe Bullock will be the one doing the scooping.
Bullock has snagged five-plus rebounds in 13 of his last 50 games, which pencils out to 26 percent. One of the games in which he fell short of this number was against the Rockets 12 days ago, when Bullock finished with … two boards.
Another thing to consider: Houston — which stands at 18-54 on the season — is tanking down the stretch. So this game, which sees the Mavericks as a 10-point favorite even without Doncic, has blowout potential. That, of course, could lead to reduced minutes for starters like Bullock.
Look for Bullock to do what he usually does — loiter on the perimeter — and come up short of 4.5 rebounds. Grab the plus price with the Under.
Philadelphia 76ers: C Joel Embiid
The prop: 3.5 assists (at LA Lakers)
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
This could be the matchup of the night. The 76ers will travel out west to take on the Lakers. Sure, the purple and gold have woefully underperformed this season, but this is a unique matchup in that it pits LeBron James against the 2021-22 MVP frontrunner: Embiid.
While most people will look toward the points or rebounding props for Philadelphia’s big man, the better value actually lies with his assists total. Consider:
- Embiid has tallied four-plus assists in four of his last five games.
- The Lakers play fast, ranking second in possessions per game this season. That should translate to more possessions than usual for Philly.
- Los Angeles ranks in the bottom 10 in assists allowed to the center position.
In his lone start against the Lakers this season (Jan. 27 in Philly), Embiid dished out seven assists. Granted, that was before James Harden joined the Sixers. But as the aforementioned numbers suggest, Harden’s presence hasn’t impacted Embiid’s assist totals.
In what should be a run-and-gun contest, it’s easy to envision Embiid passing out of double teams to open shooters. If those shooters convert, he should sail past 3.5 assists. Lay the price and play the Over.
