With the regular season coming down the home stretch, there has been a lot of recent movement in the college basketball Wooden Award odds market.
Given annually to the nation’s most outstanding collegiate player, the John R. Wooden Award is college basketball’s version of the Heisman Trophy. The main difference between the two honors: The little guy usually has a more realistic chance to win the Wooden Award.
Whereas nearly every Heisman Trophy winner comes from a Power 5 school, recent Wooden Awards have gone to players from Dayton (Obi Toppin, 2020), Villanova (Jalen Brunson, 2018), Creighton (Doug McDermott, 2014), and BYU (Jimmer Fredette, 2011). That said, as was the case in 2019 (Duke’s Zion Williamson) and last year (Iowa’s Luka Garza), the 2022 Wooden Award winner almost certainly will hail from a high-profile program.
With less than a month remaining before the NCAA Tournament’s Selection Sunday, Props.com examines the college basketball Wooden Award betting odds in what could be the deepest field of high-end finalists from the last decade.
2022 Wooden Award Candidates
| Position | Player | School | Odds |
| PF/C | Oscar Tshiebwe | Kentucky | +150 |
| SG | Johnny Davis | Wisconsin | +450 |
| SG | Kofi Cockburn | Illinois | +600 |
| C | Ochai Agbaji | Kansas | +800 |
| SF | Keegan Murray | Iowa | +1,200 |
| SG | Bennedict Mathurin | Arizona | +1,600 |
| PF/C | Chet Holmgren | Gonzaga | +1,800 |
| SF/PF | E.J. Liddell | Ohio State | +1,800 |
| PF/C | Drew Timme | Gonzaga | +2,000 |
| SF/PF | Paolo Banchero | Duke | +3,300 |
| SG | Jaden Ivey | Purdue | +3,300 |
| SF/PF | Jabari Smith Jr. | Auburn | +3,300 |
*Odds via BetMGM and updated at 2 p.m. on Feb. 18.
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Meet The Favorite
Kentucky forward Oscar Tshiebwe, who leads the country in rebounding (15.3 per game), has notched a double-double in 20 of 26 games this season, including the last eight in a row. The 6-foot-9, 260-pound junior spent his first two seasons at West Virginia, where he averaged 10.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. But he’s been a breakout star in Lexington, and not just on the glass.
Tshiebwe ranks sixth in the NCAA in scoring (16.2 points per game); he’s averaging 1.4 blocks and 2.0 steals per contest; and he’s produced four outings of 25-plus points and five games of 20-plus rebounds. Tshiebwe is a huge reason why Kentucky is ranked No. 4 in the country and in the hunt for another SEC regular-season title (as well as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament).
All this explains why Tshiebwe seemingly has a vise-like grip on this year’s Wooden Award — at +150, the native of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has far and away the shortest odds at BetMGM. However, Christian Cipollini, sports trader at BetMGM, says the race isn’t necessarily over yet.
“It is harder at this point in the season to overtake a strong betting favorite [like Tshiebwe], but certainly still possible,” Cipollini says. “There are a handful of players who, if they have a good final month and Tshiebwe drops off, could overtake him.”
Meet The Contenders
Among the legitimate contenders looking to overtake Tshiebwe are a pair of conference rivals.
Illinois junior Kofi Cockburn is the Big Ten’s version of Tshiebwe, as the 7-foot center leads the league in rebounds (11.3 per game) and ranks second in scoring (21.4 ppg).
Like Cockburn, Wisconsin sophomore Johnny Davis is a top candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year. The 6-foot-5 guard boasts top-10 conference rankings in scoring (20.7 ppg, 3rd), rebounds (8.5 per game, 4th), and steals (1.3 per contest, 10th). He also has three 30-point games this season, highlighted by a 37-point, 14-rebound eruption in Wisconsin’s 74-69 road upset of No. 5 Purdue on Jan. 3.
At +600, both Cockburn and Davis currently are the co-second choices on BetMGM’s college basketball Wooden Award odds board. While Cockburn (+1,000) was among the preseason favorites, Davis has literally come out of nowhere — he wasn’t among the preseason betting options at BetMGM.
Over in the Big 12, Kansas senior Ochai Agbaji leads his league in scoring (19.9 ppg), but it’s possible the guard’s Wooden momentum has plateaued. In five games since his season-best 37-point outburst against Texas Tech on Jan. 24, Agbaji is averaging just 14.6 points per outing.
And then there’s Iowa sophomore Keegan Murray, who might be the most indispensable asset of the primary Wooden favorites. The 6-foot-8 forward leads the Big Ten in scoring (23.3 ppg, 3rd nationally), and he ranks third in rebounds (8.4 per game), and fifth in blocks (2.0 per contest).
As with Wisconsin’s Davis, Murray was off the board at BetMGM before the season, while Ogbaji was +1,600. Currently, Ogbaji (+800) is fourth on BetMGM’s Wooden Award odds board, while Murray (+1,200) is fifth.
The Long Shots
A trio of talented freshmen — Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, and Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren — are likely to be one-and-dones at the college level. Similarly, Purdue sophomore Jaden Ivey could vault to the pros after leading the Boilermakers’ most championship-ready team since the days of Glenn Robinson (1990s).
So, the 2021-22 campaign serves as the quartet’s best (and probably only) shot at Wooden Award fame. However, all four players are significant long shots, with Holmgren’s current odds (+1,800) being the shortest of the bunch.
Two other players — Arizona sophomore Bennedict Mathurin (+1,600) and Ohio State junior E.J. Liddell (+1,800) — also have put together player of the year-type seasons. When it comes to the college basketball Wooden Award odds market, though, neither has enough time to close gap on the group of primary contenders.
As for the preseason favorites, they’ve all seen their Wooden Award odds skyrocket. In addition to Banchero (from +700 to +3,300) and Holmgren (from +900 to +1,800), that list includes Gonzaga’s Drew Timme (from +700 to +2,000), Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson (from +800 to +20,000), and Kansas’ Remy Martin (+800 to off the board due to injury).
Here’s something you can take to the bank, though: The No. 1 overall pick in the June NBA draft will come from this latter batch of Wooden hopefuls. The main candidates include Smith (perhaps the sweetest-shooting big man since Kevin Durant); Banchero (an electrifying playmaker with an NBA-ready body); Holmgren (the 7-footer could be an A-plus defender); and the high-flying Ivey (arguably the best dribble-drive penetrator in college basketball).
Ticket Takers And Money Makers
Not only is Tshiebwe the overwhelming favorite on Bet MGM’s college basketball Wooden Award odds board, but he leads all comers in ticket count (11.7%) and is second in money (15.1%) — trailing only Kansas’ Agbaji (18.1%). As such, Tshiebwe — who opened as a +4,000 long shot — represents BetMGM’s biggest liability.
Trailing right behind Tshibewe in ticket count are Purdue’s Ivey (10.5%) and Gonzaga’s Timme (9.7%). But Wisconsin’s Davis is the second-highest liability among Wooden hopefuls. After not even registering on BetMGM’s odds board four months ago, he now ranks fourth in ticket count (8.2%) and third in money (12.3%).
