Welcome to the NBA Betting Dime. If you missed the debut edition, it’s a weekly basketball column that combines some of the game’s best aspects. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some dumb pop culture references sprinkled in.
This week’s edition will focus on the streaking Celtics, Joel Embiid’s recent dominance, and the end of the Kristaps Porzingis era in Dallas.
However, we have to start with the massive trade between two of the Eastern Conference title favorites:
1. Blockbuster In Brooklyn
No, Brooklyn didn’t open up a “Blockbuster” movie chain. I know it’s a hipster city, but nowhere is that hipster in 2022.
Rather, it refers to the massive deal between the Nets and 76ers before last Thursday’s trade deadline. The Nets sent the disgruntled James Harden and Paul Millsap to Philly in exchange for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond. The Nets also received two first-round picks: a 2022 unprotected first-rounder – which the Nets can defer to 2023 if they so choose – and a 2027 top-eight protected first-rounder.
The general consensus is that the Nets made out pretty well in this deal. Harden clearly had one foot out the door, and his play has slipped this season. He ranks just 20th in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) and 48th in Win Shares per 48 minutes. Harden is also able to become a free agent at the end of the year, so grabbing a player like Simmons keeps the Nets from a potential disaster situation.
Still, I feel like this is a clear downgrade for the Nets in terms of winning the championship this year. Simmons is a major upgrade for the team defensively, but he’s a massive downgrade from Harden on the offensive end. Unless he’s learned how to shoot during his time away, he’s going to allow opposing defenses to load up on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Simmons isn’t going to be asked to do much scoring with this unit, but having even one non-shooter on the floor during the postseason can create spacing issues. The Nets could choose to put the ball in Simmons’ hands and space the floor around him, but why would they want to do that? Having the ball in Simmons’ hands takes away from Durant and Irving, two of the best one-on-one scorers in the history of the league.
I do think it’s possible to craft a successful offense around Simmons, but they’re going to have to do it in less than 25 games. Who knows how much rust Simmons will have anyway. Durant is also still sidelined with an injury and Irving is ineligible to play in home games, so the new “big three” will have minimal opportunities to gel before the postseason.
Meanwhile, the 76ers have added an offensive virtuoso alongside Joel Embiid. Embiid has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate (more on that later) and Harden will undoubtedly be the best offensive player he’s ever played with.
It should be a perfect fit. Harden can take some of the ballhandling responsibilities away from Embiid and hopefully set him up in positions to succeed. If opposing teams overload the paint, the 76ers still have plenty of perimeter shooters for Embiid to kick it to.
The real x-factor in this trade is Curry. He’s not his brother, but he has evolved into one of the best three-point shooters in the league. He’s at 39.9% from three-point range this year, but he’s shot at least 45.0% from downtown over the past three seasons.
Pairing with Curry and Joe Harris gives the Nets arguably the two most lethal catch-and-shoot perimeter players in the league. Adding those two guys to Irving and Durant is borderline unfair. If Simmons can find a way to coexist with that unit and not mess up the spacing, the Nets should be lethal offensively.
The Nets are still among the favorites to win the NBA Finals this season, but their odds have dipped recently. They’re available at +600 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which puts them just slightly ahead of the 76ers at +650.
Between those two squads, I think the better value is with Philly. Not only are they in a better spot at the moment – they’re fourth in the Eastern Conference while the Nets are in eighth – but they also have more time to figure things out. #TrustTheProcess
2. The Harden Trade Aftermath
Whoever decided that the NBA All-Star draft was going to be on the same day as the trade deadline deserves a raise. It was arguably the best 10 minutes of television that I’ve watched all year.
If you missed it, LeBron James and Durant both selected the starters and the reserves that would be playing for their respective squads. As usual, LeBron drafted his opposing captain under the table, and I would expect him to be favored for basically the 100th straight year.
However, the best moment came when the teams were drafting the reserves. Harden was available in the reserve pool, and you could tell that Durant wanted nothing to do with him. However, LeBron didn’t do him any favors, letting Harden slip to the final round of drafting. Durant had the choice between Harden and Rudy Gobert with his final selection:
Here's the moment Kevin Durant picked Rudy Gobert over James Harden with his final #NBAAllStar draft pick.
🎥 @NBAonTNT pic.twitter.com/WcvuUENsxQ https://t.co/rx4wfj8p1k
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) February 11, 2022
I love everything about this clip. Durant’s ability to keep a straight face. LeBron hiding behind the clipboard. The Inside the NBA crew egging them on. It’s perfect, and the whole 10-minute draft is worth watching if you have the time.
Additionally, I love the fact that LeBron shows up to the All-Star draft with a clipboard, giving off major “nerd at a fantasy draft” vibes. You can tell he takes this seriously, which is why he always ends up with a better team than his opposing GM.
3. The Game Goes Global
Soccer may be the world’s favorite game, but basketball is closing the gap. The NBA has done a fantastic job spreading a love of the NBA around the globe, which is reflected in this year’s All-Star game.
Six of this year’s All-Stars were born outside the United States, including a record-tying four starters: Antetokounmpo, Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Andrew Wiggins. Luka Doncic and Gobert are also available as reserves.
The internationals are also well represented in the Clorox Rising Stars game. Six of the 28 players hail from other countries, including Josh Giddey, Franz Wagner, Alperen Sengun, Chris Duarte, Precious Achiuwa, and Dyson Daniels. Giddey and Daniels were both teammates at the NBA Academy in Canberra, Australia – making them the first NBA Academy alumni to take the floor on All-Star weekend.
There are even more international players taking place in the various skills competitions, including Desmond Bane, Ayo Dosunmu, and the less-famous Antetokounmpo brothers.
All of this is just more proof that basketball is the game of the future. The fact that so many countries and continents are well represented at the highest levels is something that no other major American sport can say. Well, maybe hockey can too, but no one really cares about hockey.
4. Discount Shopping
This year feels more wide open than it has in a long time. As such, the odds to win the NBA title are going to vary heavily depending on the book. Here are the top odds for each of the current title favorites:
- Suns +460 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Warriors +475 (Caesars Sportsbook)
- Nets +600 (FanDuel)
- Bucks +700 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 76ers +700 (DraftKings)
- Heat +1200 (DraftKings)
- Jazz +1700 (BetRivers)
The variance in these numbers is much more significant than you might expect. The Nets are the favorites on certain sportsbooks, but they’re just fourth in odds on FanDuel. The Bucks are available anywhere between +550 and +700. The Heat’s odds range from +1000 to +1200.
This is just another reason why you need to have accounts on multiple sportsbooks. If you’re in a legal sports betting state, not having accounts on all the major books is frankly costing you money. After all, you wouldn’t buy a pair of shoes for $100 if they were available at $80 next door, so don’t do the same thing with sports betting.
For my money, the Bucks are the best pure value at the moment. I think the Suns and Warriors are the two best squads, but they’re going to have to go through each other. The Bucks path has the potential to be a bit easier, especially if Brooklyn can’t get their act together. Antetokounmpo is still the best two-way player in the league, and he’s capable of dominating come playoff time.
Buying low on Milwaukee isn’t a bad idea, and you can get the best price on DraftKings Sportsbook at the moment.
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5. Dunk Of The Year Candidate!!!
It was a fantastic week for dunks. There were so many good ones to choose from. Jonathan Kuminga continues to make highlights every time he touches the floor. Kelly Oubre had a nasty throwdown on Nikola Vucevic. Naz Reid dropped a hammer on the Kings.
Any of those could’ve taken the top spot in a normal week, but this wasn’t a normal week. Embiid has been arguably the best player in basketball for the past month or two, and now he has a legit dunk of the year contender:
JOEL. EMBIID. 😱
Dunk of the year from the Sixers' star?
🎥 @NBApic.twitter.com/waBTKghWVF
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) February 13, 2022
That is a massive thrunk over newly-minted All-Star Jarrett Allen. Embiid would rack up more than 40 points vs. the Cavaliers, and that was easily his most impressive two.
It reminds me a lot of the Dwight Howard “Superman Dunk” during All-Star game weekend. The only difference is that, instead of doing it on air, he did it on an All-Star.
6. NBA MVP Update: Embiid Takes the Lead
The MVP race has been wild so far this season. Steph Curry jumped out to a massive lead, getting as low as +150 or so after the first 20 games. Curry led the Warriors to an 18-2 record and was leading the league in scoring, but those odds felt silly with so much time left to play.
Since then, Embiid and Jokic have been chasing him down like closers at the Kentucky Derby. Both players have officially passed Curry, who is now available at +1000 on PointsBet.
Embiid is the consensus favorite across the industry, and it’s easy to see why. The 76ers have surged up the standings, and they’re now 2.5 games behind the East-leading Heat. Embiid has carried an insane workload for the 76ers recently, averaging 33.7 points and 11.5 rebounds over his past 23 games. He’s also scored at least 25 points in each of those contests.
The only concern with Embiid is what will his numbers look like once Harden gets in the mix? His usage rate should undoubtedly drop, which does leave the door slightly open for Jokic to win his second straight MVP.
Make no mistake about it, Jokic is having an insane season in his own right. In terms of advanced metrics, he’s having one of the greatest seasons ever. His PER currently sits at 32.56 which would set a new record. Embiid isn’t far behind – his 31.8 PER ranks fourth all-time – but Jokic is still on-pace to make history. He also leads the league in basically every other advanced metric, including Win Shares, Box Score Plus/Minus, and VORP.
He’s had to carry a depleted Nuggets roster for most of the year, and he’s done a phenomenal job of it. The Nuggets have increased their Net Rating by an insane +25.0 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor this season. That’s a testament to not just how good he is, but how bad his supporting cast is. For comparison, the 76ers Net Rating increases by just +10.1 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor. That’s still a great mark – it ranks in the 92nd percentile per Cleaning the Glass – but what Jokic has done for the Nuggets is truly other-worldly.
Still, it’s important to remember that this is a narrative-based award, and the narrative is clearly favoring Embiid at the moment. Even though I think Jokic has been the best player in the league this season, the award is Embiid’s to lose. If you haven’t grabbed him yet – which you should have if you read this column! – this might be your last chance to grab him at plus odds.
The best price comes at +150 over on BetMGM. That’s compared to +135 on PointsBet and +140 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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7. Klay Thompson Is Back
Thompson went full John Wick on the Lakers this weekend. People keep asking if he’s back, and yeah, I’m thinking that he’s back.
Thompson caught fire in the fourth quarter, scoring 16 points in a comeback victory:
Klay caught fire in the 4th 👀@KlayThompson drops 16 PTS in the quarter and 33 PTS for the game in the @warriors win! pic.twitter.com/wilKkbpjHr
— NBA (@NBA) February 13, 2022
It wasn’t Thompson’s most impressive performance, but it reminded everyone that he’s capable of going supernova at the flip of a switch.
Grinding out a win over the Lakers isn’t all that impressive, but Thompson gives the Warriors yet another weapon come playoff time. His minute restriction has been raised to 30 recently, and he should be a full go for the postseason. Thompson is shooting 38.1% from 3-point range, and that’s an area where the Warriors have surprisingly struggled this year. If he gets hot during the playoffs, he can single-handedly swing a game for the Warriors. That’s a massive development.
8. The Irishmen
Don’t look now, but the Celtics have started to make a move. They entered Tuesday’s matchup vs. the 76ers riding an eight-game winning streak, and they’re well on their way towards making it nine in a row. They’re up to sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which would give them the last guaranteed postseason spot if the playoffs started today.
The Celtics were also aggressive at the trade deadline, and they made one of the best moves of the day. They brought in Derrick White from the Spurs, who is a massive upgrade for the team at point guard. White looked like a future star at one point, particularly during the Orlando bubble in 2019-20. He’s taken a backseat to Dejounte Murray in San Antonio this season, but he’s still a very capable scorer.
His addition to the Celtics already promising core – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Al Horford – has the team looking like a scary out during the postseason. They’re still a clear notch or two behind the top teams in the East, but no one wants to play this team in the playoffs.
The Celtics also have a couple of open roster spots at the moment, so they are threats in the buyout market. Goran Dragic is the clear top option among the potential buyouts, and the Mavericks are currently considered the favorites to secure his services.
However, there are some other pieces that are worth some consideration. Gary Harris would make sense if the team is looking for a wing, and Eric Bledsoe is a possibility in the backcourt. Someone like Robin Lopez could also be available at center, although that doesn’t seem like a necessary addition with Daniel Theis back in town.
Ultimately, the Celtics are not done making moves. The odds of them finding a meaningful contributor in the buyout market aren’t great, but every little bit helps in a loaded Eastern Conference.
9. The Unicorn Changes Colors
Kristaps Porzingis got dubbed “the unicorn” because of his unique skill set. He’s the rare big man who can protect the rim on defense while providing elite floor spacing on offense. Overall, he’s averaged 2.2 blocks and 2.1 made 3-pointers per 36 minutes over his career.
Unfortunately, Porzingis’ nickname has taken a new twist recently thanks to ESPN’s Tim Legler:
“I know he got nicknamed the unicorn because he’s so unique, but he’s also the unicorn because you hardly ever see him. That’s the problem. He’s not consistently available.”
Tim Legler goes OFF on Kristaps Porzingis 👀
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) February 10, 2022
Pretty elite burn from Legler. I honestly didn’t know he had that in him.
Still, it’s sad that this is what it’s come to for Porzingis. He was traded to the Wizards in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans, which is not exactly the type of haul you would expect for a player of Porzingis’ caliber.
Unfortunately, the injury concerns have only gotten worse as Porzingis has aged. He played in just 34 games for the Mavericks this season before being traded, and he averaged just 29.5 minutes per game.
You might think this trade was a salary dump, but you’d be incorrect. Dinwiddie is under contract for two more years – the same as Porzingis – while Bertans has two years and a player option remaining on his deal.
Instead, this trade was about letting the team evolve without Porzingis. Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison told reporters that this trade “was about really ourselves the flexibility that we needed to be the team we needed to be, and that’s really the bottom line.”
Translation: Porzingis did not fit with how the Mavericks wanted to play basketball.
They are blessed with one of the game’s best young players in Doncic, but the two-man combination of Doncic and Porzingis had a lackluster Net Rating of +0.6 points per 100 possessions. Doncic owns better marks with Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, and Maxi Kleber, so the team felt it was in their best interest to chalk Porzingis up as a failed gamble. Only time will tell if it actually works.
10. Steph Curry Channels His Inner MJ
Curry has done millions of remarkable things on a basketball court. He’s won MVPs, he’s won NBA titles, and he’s reinvented what the world thinks about the 3-point shot.
That said, one thing that Curry is not known for is his driving ability. Don’t get me wrong, Curry is more than capable of attacking a closeout and getting to the rim, but you don’t fear him driving the same way you do a guy like Giannis or LeBron.
That’s what made Curry’s move against the Knicks last week so cool. Not only did he convert a beautiful spin move towards the baseline, but it was eerily reminiscent of a move Michael Jordan made vs. the Knicks:
Needed Steph to dunk this pic.twitter.com/sKZOgHeHEe
— Tony Clements (@TonyCMKE) February 11, 2022
There are obviously some differences here. Curry finishes with an easy layup while Jordan hammers a poster dunk over one of the greatest defenders of all-time in Patrick Ewing. No one is going to argue that Curry’s move was more impressive.
But the drive, hesitation, and spin back towards the baseline? Identical.
I love stuff like this. Do you think Curry said to himself “I’m breaking out the Jordan baseline move at the Garden tonight” or was it instinctual? I guess we’ll never know. Regardless, it’s another move to add to Curry’s seemingly endless highlight reel.
